The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, Sept. 29
Javier Assad: Chicago Cubs
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs | 2:20 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.28 ERA indicates
Assad has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 1-2 record with a 4.28 ERA through 7 games (6 starts). He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, as he also owns a 5.03 xFIP this season.
Assad has only found success in one start this season. He posted a 2.54 xFIP against the Cincinnati Reds. He recorded a 4.84 or worse xFIP in each of his other 5 starts, including a 7.33 xFIP against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his last start.
Assad gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies today. They’re a high upside offense, although they only own a .302 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Assad gets a matchup against the Phillies, who have struggled offensively a bit in recent games. Still, I feel this is a better “get right spot” for Philly than Assad, and I prefer their offense.
Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins | 1:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.05 ERA suggests
Once again, Giolito makes his way into this article. He’s posted a 10-9 record with a 5.05 ERA through 28 starts this season. He’s throwing drastically better than that, though, as he boasts a 3.60 xFIP.
Giolito has caught fire in recent starts, although his numbers don’t completely show that. He’s allowed 7 earned runs over 16.2 innings in this last 3 starts. With that being said, he’s posted 2.35, 3.85, and 2.61 xFIPs in those games.
Giolito gets a solid matchup against the Minnesota Twins. They’ve been struggling offensively, posting a .290 team wOBA over their last 14 days.
Bottom Line: I’ve been siding with Giolito for quite some time, and I’m not going to stop here. He should have a solid start late in this season.
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Sean Manaea: San Diego Padres
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.23 ERA suggests
Manaea has struggled for the San Diego Padres this season. He’s recorded a 7-9 record with a 5.23 ERA through 28 games (27 starts). He’s due for positive regression, though, as he also owns a 4.02 xFIP.
Manaea has been struggling in recent games. Since returning as a starter from his move to the bullpen, he’s posted 6.90 and 4.58 xFIPs. He was also a boom or bust option prior to shifting to the bullpen.
Manaea gets an interesting matchup tonight. He’ll face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who feature one of the better offenses in the MLB. They only own a .293 team wOBA over the last 14 days, though.
Bottom Line: Manaea is due for positive regression, and he gets a reasonable matchup against a struggling offense. It’s impossible to trust him, though, and he’s a risky option at best tonight.