The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, Sept. 20
Brayan Bello: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.10 ERA indicates
Bello has struggled throughout his rookie season. He owns a 1-6 record with a 5.10 ERA through 10 games (8 starts) thus far. He’s also recorded a 3.81 xFIP and a .395 BABIP, suggesting he’s been extremely unlucky up until this point.
Bello struggled early in the season, but his advanced metrics have looked outstanding in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP below 3.60 in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s also coming off of a start with a 2.80 xFIP.
Bello gets a plus matchup against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. They’ve been struggling, posting a .288 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The only concern is that this game will be played in an extremely hitter-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Bello has struggled throughout the season, but his advanced metrics look good. He’s going to find success at home point, and this is a great matchup for that.
JP Sears: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Seattle Mariners at Oakland A’s | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.90 ERA suggests
Sears has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 5-2 record with a 3.90 ERA through 14 games (9 starts). He’s recorded a 4.72 xFIP this season, though, suggesting he’s due for plenty of regression.
Sears has struggled more as a starter than a reliever in 2022. He owns similar ERAs for both roles. He’s posted a 3.89 ERA through 44 innings as a starter. He enters this game with a 4.87 xFIP in those innings, though.
Sears gets a tough matchup against the Seattle Mariners tonight. The Mariners have been playing well, posting a .330 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The lefty will benefit from throwing in a pitcher-friendly stadium, though.
Bottom Line: Sears has found plenty of success this season, but I don’t expect that to continue for much longer. Seattle should be able to get to him in this game.
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Aaron Ashby: Milwaukee Brewers
Matchup: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers | 7:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.58 ERA suggests
Ashby has been extremely unlucky through 23 games (17 starts) this season. He’s recorded a 2-10 record with a 4.58 ERA through 96.1 innings. He also boasts a dominant 3.26 xFIP.
The key to Ashby is that this was the case last season as well. He finished the season with a 4.55 ERA and a 3.05 xFIP. This was the case in Triple-A as well. It’s possible that he’s a pitcher that owns better-advanced metrics than he’s actually throwing.
Ashby gets a terrible matchup against the New York Mets tonight. They’ve been one of the hottest offenses in the MLB, recording a .361 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Ashby is due for positive regression, but it’s a complicated situation. This is a tough matchup, and I’m going to be avoiding him tonight.
