The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, Sep. 2
Domingo German: New York Yankees
Matchup: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.19 ERA indicates
German has thrown limited innings this season. He’s looked good with a 2-2 record and a 3.19 ERA through 8 starts. He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, as he also owns a 4.39 xFIP.
German is coming off of a good start, but he’s struggled more often than not this season. He’s recorded a 4.36 or worse xFIP in 5 of his 8 starts, including 3 of his last 4. He’s also posted xFIPs of 5.99 and 7.22 this season.
German gets a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. They’ve been heating up in recent games, and they’ve posted a .337 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: German will benefit from the pitcher-friendly stadium, but Tampa Bay’s offense has found plenty of success recently. This is a risky spot for him, as he hasn’t been throwing all that well.
JP Sears: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.28 ERA suggests
Sears has looked great throughout his rookie season. He’s posted a 5-1 record with a 2.28 ERA through 11 games (6 starts). That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as he also owns a 4.59 xFIP this season.
Sears has also been significantly better as a reliever this season. As a starter, his xFIP jumps to 4.75 through 32 innings. He’s also posted 5.59 and 5.30 xFIPs in two of his last three starts for Oakland.
Sears gets a tough matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve cooled off a bit recently, but they’ve found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout the season. Overall, they recorded a .304 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Sears gets a boom or bust matchup against Baltimore tonight. He isn’t a pitcher I’d be targeting, as he’s due for quite a bit of regression.
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Luis Cessa: Cincinnati Reds
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.36 ERA suggests
Cessa has seen mixed results in different roles throughout the season. Overall, he’s posted a 3-2 record with a 5.36 ERA through 39 games (3 starts). His xFIP sits at 4.11, though, suggesting he’s due for plenty of positive regression.
Cessa has started each of the last two times he’s thrown. He posted a 3.09 xFIP over 2 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies and a 4.09 xFIP over 4 innings against the Washington Nationals. As he throws more innings, his volatility should decrease.
Cessa gets a plus matchup against the Colorado Rockies. They’re a team that struggles outside of Coors, and they’ve posted a .278 team wOBA over the last 14 days. He’s throwing in a hitter-friendly stadium, but it’s still better than Coors.
Bottom Line: Cessa is due for positive regression, and I’m expecting it to come. I like the matchup against Colorado, and he should find success tonight.
