The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, Sept. 19
Chad Kuhl: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.33 ERA indicates
Kuhl has struggled quite a bit this season. He’s recorded a 6-9 record with a 5.33 ERA through 24 starts. His xFIP sits at 5.81, though, suggesting he’s throwing slightly better than his baseline metrics show.
Kuhl saw a stretch of terrible starts, but he looks to be passed that. He’s been throwing at a high level in recent starts. Overall, he’s posted 3.88, 3.90, and 2.66 xFIPs over his last 3 starts. He faced off against some tough offense, including the Atlanta Braves over that span.
Kuhl gets a great matchup against the San Francisco Giants. They’ve been struggling in recent games, posting a league-low .260 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Kuhl isn’t a great pitcher by any stretch. He gets a plus matchup, though, and he’s due for some positive regression. I’m siding with the pitcher in this situation.
Cory Abbott: Washington Nationals
Matchup: Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves | 7:20 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.37 ERA suggests
Abbott has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns an 0-2 record with a 4.37 ERA through 13 games (6 starts). He’s struggled significantly more than that, though, as he’s recorded a 5.67 xFIP this season.
Abbott has been significantly worse as a starter this season. He’s posted a 5.19 ERA through 26 innings as a starting pitcher. His xFIP as a starter sits at 5.99, so there’s room for him to throw even worse in that role.
Abbott gets a terrible matchup against the Atlanta Braves tonight. The Braves feature one of the most dangerous offenses in the MLB. They’ve also been playing well in recent weeks, posting a .323 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Abbott has struggled as a starting pitcher this season. He’ll now be throwing in Atlanta against one of the top offenses in the MLB. I’m not expecting him to find much success in this matchup.
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Jakob Junis: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.15 ERA suggests
Junis has gotten a bit unlucky throughout the 2022 season. He enters this game with a 4-6 record to go along with a 4.15 ERA. He boasts a solid 3.66 xFIP through 20 games (16 starts) this season.
Junis has been better as a reliever, but he’s still found success as a starter. He owns a 4.52 ERA through 79.2 innings as a starter. He also boasts a 3.81 xFIP as a starting pitcher in 2022.
Junis gets an interesting matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight. The Rockies own a .310 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They’ll benefit from playing in Coors tonight, though.
Bottom Line: Junis gets a tougher matchup tonight, but he’s been throwing well as a starting pitcher. I expect him to find some success in this game, even if he gets touched up a bit at times.
