The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, Sept. 15
Lance McCullers: Houston Astros
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Houston Astros | 7:20 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.20 ERA indicates
McCullers has looked elite through limited games this season. He owns a 3-1 record with a 2.20 ERA through only 5 starts. With that being said, he’s posted a 4.37 xFIP in those games, suggesting he’s throwing a lot worse than his baseline metrics suggest.
McCullers has found plenty of success in four of his five starts this season. He struggled only once. With that being said, he has yet to record an xFIP under 4.00 in any of his starts this season. He’s posted as high as a 5.00 xFIP against the Baltimore Orioles.
McCullers gets a matchup against the Oakland A’s tonight. They’ve been struggling with a .289 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This game will also be played in Houston.
Bottom Line: McCullers hasn’t been throwing as well as his numbers suggest, but he gets a great matchup against Oakland. I’m expecting him to avoid regression and find success in this game.
James Kaprielian: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Houston Astros | 7:20 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.79 ERA suggests
Kaprielian has struggled throughout the majority of the 2022 season. He owns a 3-9 record with a 4.79 xFIP through 22 starts. He’s been even worse than that, though, as he’s posted a 5.44 xFIP this season.
Kaprielian has been atrocious in recent starts. He’s posted 5.47, 11.71, and 7.88 xFIPs in his last 3 starts. He’s recorded an xFIP under 5.00 in only 1 of his last 5 starts.
Kaprielian gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros tonight. The Astros have been heating up in recent games. They’ve recorded a .322 team wOBA over the last 14 days, which is one of the highest on this slate.
Bottom Line: Kaprielian has struggled throughout the season, and he’s been even worse in recent games. He gets a tough matchup against Houston, and the Astros should find plenty of success in this game.
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Sean Manaea: San Diego Padres
Matchup: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.23 ERA suggests
Manaea has struggled through 26 games (25 starts) this season. He’s posted a 7-8 record with a 5.23 ERA thus far. With that being said, his xFIP sits at only 3.92, suggesting he’s due for positive regression.
Manaea hasn’t been an overly consistent starter in 2022. He’s posted anywhere from 2.35 to 5.09 xFIPs in his last 10 starts. He’s been somewhat of a shutdown pitcher or backend option depending on the game.
Manaea gets an interesting matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They’ve quietly posted a .312 team wOBA over the last 14 days. Arizona’s been one of the worst teams in the MLB against left-handed pitching since July 16th, though.
Bottom Line: Manaea was taken out of the San Diego rotation as they shifted to a four-man for the final stretch, but he’s back as a starter for this game. This is a solid matchup for Manaea, and he should find some success.