The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, Sept. 13
Drew Hutchison: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.08 ERA indicates
Hutchison has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He’s posted a 2-7 record with a 4.08 ERA through 24 games (14 starts). He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, as he also owns a 4.92 xFIP in those games.
Hutchison has struggled for the majority of the season. He’s posted an xFIP over 4.00 in 15 consecutive games. He recorded as high as a 6.20 xFIP against the Texas Rangers in those contests.
Hutchison gets an interesting matchup against the Houston Astros. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .317 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This is extremely solid, although it isn’t at the top of the MLB over that span.
Bottom Line: Hutchison has struggled for the majority of the season, specifically as a starter. He gets a tougher matchup against Houston tonight, and I’m expecting the Astros to find success in this matchup.
Josh Fleming: Tampa Bay Rays
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.84 ERA suggests
Fleming has struggled through limited innings this season. He’s recorded a 2-4 record with a 6.84 ERA through 8 games (2 starts). The left-hander is throwing legitimately well, though, as he owns a solid 3.74 xFIP in those games.
Fleming has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the MLB. As a reliever, he’s posted anywhere from a 0.12 to a 7.42 xFIP. He also recorded 1.76 and 6.65 xFIPs as a starter in 2022.
Fleming gets a tough matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ve recorded a .348 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and this game is going to be played in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Fleming is due for plenty of positive regression, but I’m not making the bet that he’s going to find it in this particular matchup.
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Michael Kopech: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.78 ERA suggests
Kopech has thrown well throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded a 4-9 record with a 3.78 ERA through 24 starts. In those starts, he’s also posted a 4.88 xFIP, which is over a full run higher than his ERA.
Kopech has looked terrible in his last few starts. His regression is starting to catch up to him. In his last three starts, he’s posted 5.41, 12.12, and 6.17 xFIPs. He’s also recorded a 4.30 xFIP or worse in 12 of his last 14 starts.
Kopech gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight. The Rockies enter this game with a .315 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The most important aspect is that this game will be played in Chicago rather than Colorado.
Bottom Line: Kopech has been struggling, and he’s due for more regression as the season continues. With that being said, this game will be played in Chicago, which favors Kopech heavily. Still, I don’t fully trust him tonight.