The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, Sep. 1
Johnny Cueto: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox | 2:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.98 ERA indicates
Cueto continues to throw at a surprisingly high level for the Chicago White Sox. He owns a 6-6 record with a 2.98 ERA through 19 games (18 starts). He’s struggled much more than that, though, as he owns a 4.39 xFIP this season.
Cueto has been even worse in recent games. He posted 5.97, 4.87, and 5.14 xFIPs in his last 3 starts. He gave up 7 earned runs over 5 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last game, although he allowed only 1 earned run over 16.2 innings in the two starts prior to that.
Cueto gets a matchup against the Kansas City Royals tonight. They’ve been struggling a bit recently, posting a .300 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Cueto is due for plenty of regression, but he gets a solid matchup today. I could see this game going either way, and I’m not looking to back Cueto.
Kyle Bradish: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians | 6:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.63 ERA suggests
Bradish has struggled throughout his rookie season. He’s posted a 2-5 record with a 5.63 ERA through 16 starts. Although he’s struggled with that, he owns a solid 3.95 xFIP through his short MLB career.
Bradish is coming off of 8 shutout innings against the Houston Astros. He saw positive regression in that game, but that was the first time in his last four starts. He’s due for quite a bit more, and we know he can throw at a solid level.
Bradish gets a matchup against the Cleveland Guardians tonight. They’ve been struggling recently, as they own a .256 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This is the second-lowest rate in the league over that span.
Bottom Line: Bradish is due for positive regression, and he gets a plus matchup tonight. He’s coming off of a confidence-building start, and he’s a solid option on this slate.
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Eduardo Rodriguez: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers | 1:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.60 ERA suggests
Rodriguez has thrown in limited innings for the Detroit Tigers this season. He’s recorded a 3-3 record with a 3.60 ERA through 10 starts. He’s struggled a bit more than that with a 4.60 xFIP, though.
Rodriguez has struggled since returning from injury. He’s allowed only 1 earned run over 11 innings. He posted 5.18 and 4.69 xFIPs in those starts, though.
Rodriguez gets a matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who have found plenty of offensive success this season. They’ve been struggling a bit more recently, posting a .302 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Rodriguez has struggled since returning from injury, and I don’t love the matchup against Seattle. I expect him to struggle in this start.