The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, Oct. 5
Johan Oviedo: Pittsburgh Pirates
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 4:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.12 ERA indicates
Oviedo has quietly been throwing well through limited innings in 2022. He’s recorded a 4-3 record with a 3.12 ERA through 20 games (7 starts). His 4.19 xFIP suggests he’s due for regression, though.
Oviedo has been much better as a reliever this season. He enters this game with a 3.41 ERA through 31.2 innings as a starter. His xFIP also sits at 4.67 as a starter this season.
Oviedo gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. They’ve been playing well in recent games, posting a .311 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The Cardinals could choose to bench some of their starters, though.
Bottom Line: Oviedo has found success, but he’s due for regression. Keep an eye out on the St. Louis lineup, but I’m expecting them to get to the right-hander today.
Josh Fleming: Tampa Bay Rays
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox | 4:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.23 ERA suggests
Fleming has looked awful in limited games this season. He owns a 2-4 record with a 6.23 ERA through 9 games (2 starts) in 2022. He’s throwing much better than his numbers suggest, though, as he owns a 3.77 xFIP with a .402 BABIP in the Majors this season.
Fleming has struggled more often than not in his last few games. He’s posted a 4.10 or worse xFIP in six of his last seven games. The left-hander also posted a 4.10 xFIP over four innings in his return to the MLB in September.
Fleming gets an interesting matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They haven’t been playing all that well in recent games. Over the last 14 days, they’ve recorded a .305 team wOBA.
Bottom Line: Fleming isn’t nearly as bad as his baseline metrics suggest. His advanced metrics look solid, and this is a reasonable matchup tonight. He should find some success against Boston in this game.
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Aaron Civale: Cleveland Guardians
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians | 4:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.04 ERA suggests
Civale has struggled quite a bit throughout the 2022 season. He’s posted a 4-6 record with a 5.04 ERA through 19 starts. He also boasts a 3.77 xFIP, though, suggesting he’ll find more success as he throws more innings.
Civale has quietly looked outstanding in recent games. He’s recorded 3.41, 1.79, and 3.80 xFIPs over his last three starts. He’s been a pitcher that goes on stretches throughout the season, and he’s in the middle of a successful stretch at the moment.
Civale gets a matchup against the Kansas City Royals tonight. They aren’t a dominant offense, but they have been on fire in recent games. They own a .321 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Civale is throwing drastically better than his baseline metrics suggest. This isn’t an ideal matchup, but I do expect Civale to find some success.
