The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, July 15
Michael Kopech: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.35 ERA indicates
We’ve been attacking Kopech’s regression for a bit now, and we can once again tonight. He enters this game with a 2-6 record and a 3.35 ERA. His xFIP sits at 4.88, though.
Kopech’s been regressing in recent starts. He’s struggled in 4 of his last 5 starts with his only success coming against the Detroit Tigers. I’m expecting this regression to continue, as all of Kopech’s advanced metrics look awful in recent games.
He gets a terrible matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who feature an elite offense at home. They just dominated him in Chicago two starts ago, and I’m expecting another bad outing for the young pitcher.
Bottom Line: Kopech’s on a regression tour at the moment, and I don’t expect that to stop in Minnesota.
Tyler Wells: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays | 7:1 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.28 ERA suggests
Wells has found plenty of success this season, recording a 7-4 record with a 3.28 ERA through 17 starts. He owns the highest xFIP (4.70) of his career, though, and it’s only a matter of time before he comes back to Earth.
Wells recently threw a gem against the Minnesota Twins, posting a 3.01 xFIP in that game. That’s the only start out of his last 8 with an xFIP under 4.50, though. He’s recorded an ERA lower than his xFIP in 8 of his last 9 starts.
Wells gets an interesting matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They’re an injured offense and playing in an extremely pitcher-friendly stadium. With that being said, they do have the potential to get to bad pitching.
Bottom Line: Wells is due for regression, but this is actually a decent spot for him. I could see this game going either way, but Baltimore’s starter will start seeing regression sooner than later overall.
Cole Irvin: Oakland Athletics
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Houston Astros | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.32 ERA suggests
Irvin’s thrown well through 15 starts this season. He owns a 3-7 record with a 3.32 ERA through 89.1 innings. He also posted a 4.45 xFIP in those starts, suggesting he’s due for regression as the season continues.
Irvin’s seen mixed results throughout the season, but he’s posted an xFIP better than 4 in only 4 of his 15 starts. He gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros tonight.
Irvin’s allowed only 3 earned runs over 11.2 innings against the Astros this season. With that being said, he posted 5.67 and 6.09 xFIPs in his 2 starts against Houston.
Bottom Line: Irvin’s due for regression overall, but he’s also due for plenty of regression against this Houston offense. He could be in for a rough start tonight.