The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, Aug. 26
Alex Wood: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.54 ERA indicates
Wood has struggled this season, posting an 8-10 record with a 4.54 ERA through 24 starts. He’s been unlucky though, as he also boasts a dominant 3.38 xFIP.
Wood has cooled off a bit in recent games. He’s had some tough matchups, specifically a game in Coors, which has resulted in a few bad starts. He’s performed well when expected, though.
Wood gets an interesting matchup against the Minnesota Twins. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games, although they’ve found success against left-handed pitchers throughout the season.
Bottom Line: I do have some concerns about this matchup, but Wood’s advanced metrics look outstanding. I’m expecting him to find success against Minnesota tonight.
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Tommy Henry: Arizona Diamondbacks
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.57 ERA suggests
Henry has seen mixed results early in his 2022 season. He owns a 2-2 record with a 3.57 ERA through 4 starts. His 5.04 xFIP suggests he’s struggling quite a bit, though.
Henry is coming off of a surprisingly good game against a tough St. Louis Cardinals team. Prior to that, he had posted 6.96, 5.00, and 5.33 xFIPs in his first 3 starts. He’s also struggled to find success in the minor leagues.
Henry gets a tough matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who are going to put the ball in play. He isn’t an MLB-level pitcher, and it’s only a matter of time before his stats reflect that.
Bottom Line: Henry has gotten lucky in a limited sample size this season. I’m expecting Chicago to find plenty of success against him in this game.
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Michael Wacha: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.28 ERA suggests
Wacha has been a dominant arm in the MLB throughout the 2022 season. He owns an 8-1 record with a 2.28 ERA through 15 starts. He’s also recorded a .235 BABIP with a 4.06 xFIP this season.
Wacha has been a bit of a boom or bust pitcher in recent starts. Over his last 4 starts, he owns as good of a 1.82 xFIP against the New York Yankees and as bad as a 6.76 xFIP against the Toronto Blue Jays. This has been the case for him over his last 6 starts.
Wacha gets a reasonable matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who’ve seen mixed results throughout the season. They have been an average team against right-handed pitching since July 16th as well.
Bottom Line: Wacha is throwing well, but he isn’t throwing as well as his baseline metrics suggest. He gets a reasonable matchup against Tampa Bay tonight, and I’m not entirely sure this will be the spot where he gets rocked.
