The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, Aug. 25
Jacob deGrom: New York Mets
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at New York Mets | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 2.31 ERA indicates
It’s strange for a pitcher with a ridiculous 2.31 ERA to be due for positive regression, but that’s the case in this game. deGrom owns an absurd 1.08 xFIP through 4 starts. This is almost impossible to sustain, but his xFIP sat under 2.00 last season over 15 starts.
deGrom is coming off of his worst game of the season, posting a 1.74 xFIP over 6.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves. In his only 2 home starts in 2022, he’s recorded 0.52 and 0.71 xFIPs.
deGrom gets an interesting matchup against the Colorado Rockies. They have seen mixed results this season, but they have struggled at times away from home. They will be playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium in New York tonight.
Bottom Line: deGrom is throwing at an elite level, but he’s been better than his numbers suggest. This is a great matchup for him, and I’m expecting him to look like one of the best pitchers in MLB history again tonight.
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Ryan Feltner: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at New York Mets | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.88 ERA suggests
Feltner has struggled quite a bit this season. He owns a 2-4 record with a 5.88 ERA through 12 games (11 starts). He’s also recorded a 4.26 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for positive regression.
Feltner has posted a terrible 6.26 ERA through 27.1 road innings this season. He owns a solid 3.90 xFIP outside of Colorado, though. It’s only a matter of time before Feltner starts finding more road success in 2022.
The right-hander gets a tough matchup against the New York Mets tonight, though. They’ve been playing extremely well, and I don’t think the stadium is going to help him all that much.
Bottom Line: Feltner is due for positive regression, and he could see some of that tonight. I’m not expecting a gem in this game, although I do think he could find some success.
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James Kaprielian: Oakland A’s
Matchup: New York Yankees at Oakland A’s | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.29 ERA suggests
Kaprielian has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded a 3-7 record with a 4.29 ERA through 20 starts. His 5.25 xFIP suggests he’s throwing even worse than that as well.
Kaprielian has been extremely inconsistent throughout the season. He’s struggled in each of his last 4 home games. He posted 7.83, 5.16, 5.08, and 6.98 xFIPs in those games. Even with his terrible struggles with advanced metrics, he found success in 3 of those 4 starts.
Kaprielian gets an interesting matchup against the New York Yankees. They’ve struggled at times in recent games, but they also own plenty of upside as an offense. He’ll be helped by Oakland’s pitcher-friendly stadium, though.
Bottom Line: Kaprielian isn’t a good pitcher, and he’s been extremely lucky in recent home starts. That could end tonight with New York in town.
