The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, August 2
Keegan Thompson: Chicago Cubs
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals | 7:45 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.16 ERA indicates
Thompson has looked outstanding through 21 games (13 starts) this season. He owns an 8-4 record with a 3.16 ERA. He also posted a 4.18 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for some regression as the season continues.
Thompson is an interesting player, though, and he may simply throw better than his advanced metrics suggest. His ERA sat well below his xFIP last season, although the majority of those games were as a relief pitcher. More importantly, his ERA sat below his xFIP in the majority of his minor league stints.
Thompson gets a tough matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. They rank sixth in the MLB in team wOBA over the last 14 days. This is an offense that can get to anyone, especially a young pitcher on the road.
Bottom Line: I’m not entirely convinced that Thompson will or won’t beat regression throughout his career. It’s too early to say. With that being said, he gets a tough matchup tonight, and St. Louis could get to the young starter.
Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.14 ERA suggests
Giolito has been extremely unlucky through 18 starts in 2022. His 5.14 ERA sits well above his 3.75 xFIP. He actually owns the exact same xFIP as last season, but his ERA sits 1.61 runs higher than last season.
Giolito hasn’t been able to find sustained success throughout the season. After flashing in a few games, he’s posted 4.51 and 5.24 xFIPs in his last 2 starts. It’s worrisome that he’s so inconsistent, but he gets a great matchup tonight.
Giolito will face off against the Kansas City Royals, who have been struggling in recent games. They certainly have a few solid bats in their lineup, but it isn’t anything that pitchers are going to be scared of. If he can navigate them, he should find plenty of success.
Bottom Line: Giolito has been a boom or bust pitching option in 2022, but he’s still gotten unlucky. I expect him to take advantage of this matchup tonight.
Logan Gilbert: Seattle Mariners
Matchup: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.47 road ERA suggests
Let me preface this by saying Gilbert is an extremely good pitcher. He’s a high-level arm in the MLB, but he’s still due for some regression. The young ace owns a 10-4 record with a 2.78 ERA and a 3.65 xFIP.
Gilbert owns a 2.47 ERA through 69.1 road innings this season. His xFIP jumps to 4.15 outside of Seattle. It’s only a matter of time before his struggles actually catch up to him.
The right-hander gets a tough matchup against the New York Yankees. They have tremendous upside throughout their offense, and they’re playing in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB.
Bottom Line: Gilbert is a high-level pitcher, but his advanced metrics are far from great on the road. This could be a tough matchup for him tonight.
