The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, Aug. 19
Tommy Henry: Arizona Diamondbacks
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.15 ERA indicates
Henry has seen mixed results through very limited innings this season. He owns a 2-1 record with a 4.15 ERA through only 3 starts. He is struggled significantly more than that with a 5.68 xFIP, though.
The lack of innings adds volatility, but there’s been one consistent early this season for Henry. He has posted a 5.00 or worse xFIP in each of his 3 starts. His worst xFIP came in at 6.98 against the Cleveland Guardians.
Henry gets a terrible matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. They lead the MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching since July 16th. The second-place team isn’t particularly close either.
Bottom Line: Henry isn’t throwing overly well, but he’s been even worse. This is as bad of a matchup as he could get, and I’m expecting St. Louis to find plenty of success in this matchup.
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Bryse Wilson: Pittsburgh Pirates
Matchup: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.93 ERA suggests
Wilson has struggled quite a bit throughout the 2022 season. He enters this game with a 2-7 record and a 5.93 ERA. He has been extremely unlucky with a 4.58 xFIP and a .319 BABIP, though.
Wilson is due for plenty of regression at home as the season progresses. He owns a 7.50 ERA through 24 home innings. His xFIP sits at only 4.65 in those innings, though. It’s only a matter of time before he starts to find more success in Pittsburgh.
Wilson gets a plus matchup against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. The Reds have struggled against right-handed pitching, and they own a .294 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Wilson isn’t a great pitcher, but he does get a great matchup against Cincinnati. He is due for positive regression at home, adding to his upside in this game.
Matt Manning: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.24 ERA suggests
Manning has thrown well through only 25 innings this season. He hasn’t recorded a win or loss, but he owns a 3.24 ERA through 5 starts. His 4.73 xFIP suggests he’s due for some regression, though.
Manning threw a gem against the Kansas City Royals, but that was his only xFIP under 4.00 on the season. He also recorded a 6.89 xFIP against the Minnesota Twins, and he has struggled in 4 of his 5 starts.
Manning gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight. The Angels have struggled with a .272 team wOBA over the last 14 days, making this a solid matchup for the young right-hander.
Bottom Line: Manning is due for some regression, but he gets a great matchup tonight. I’m expecting him to outlast that regression for another game.
