For more than a century, Major League Baseball pitchers were judged primarily on their win-loss records. These days, though, wins are a relic stat for evaluating pitching acumen. Still, sportsbooks offer wagering on the MLB pitching wins leader as part of their overall futures market. So of course we’d be remiss if we didn’t examine the odds and find some viable betting options.
With that, Props.com continues it’s 2022 MLB betting preview with a look at this season’s MLB pitching wins leaders.
Pitcher Win Leader Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees | +650 |
| Walker Buehler | Los Angeles Dodgers | +800 |
| Max Scherzer | New York Mets | +800 |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | +900 |
| Jacob deGrom | New York Mets | +900 |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays | +1,500 |
| Jose Berrios | Toronto Blue Jays | +1,500 |
| Corbin Burnes | Milwaukee Brewers | +1,800 |
| Framber Valdez | Houston Astros | +2,000 |
| Julio Urias | Los Angeles Dodgers | +2,000 |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook and updated as of 9 p.m. ET on March 29.
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Fading The Favorites
First, there’s nothing wrong with New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. And with 15-plus wins in three of MLB’s last four full seasons, he probably deserves to lead the pack of hurlers at the top of the pitching wins leader odds board. However, just because Cole is the legit favorite doesn’t mean he offers betting value.
That sentiment applies even more so to a couple of pitchers slotted just below Cole: the Phillies’ Zach Wheeler and the Mets’ Jacob deGrom, who are the easiest fades among the chalk options. Let’s start with Wheeler.
Last year, the right-hander threw a career- and MLB-high 213.1 innings, a massive spike from his 71.0 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, Wheeler entered the spring behind schedule after experiencing shoulder soreness in December. Thankfully, he has advanced to throwing batting practice and has recovered to full health. Nevertheless, shoulder soreness is a red flag that provides an adequate excuse for fading Wheeler.
Of course, deGrom wasn’t a stranger to the injured list (IL) last year. The supremely talented righty landed on the IL in early July just before the All-Star break and never returned to the mound, his season halted after just 92.0 innings. They were 92 spectacular innings, to be sure. But given health concerns and how much the Mets’ hopes ride on his right arm, it’s difficult to believe deGrom’s innings will spike enough to be in position to compete as the MLB pitching wins leader.
In the last five full seasons (2016-2019 and 2021), the fewest innings pitched by an MLB-wins leader were 175.0 (Clayton Kershaw did it in 2017, when he tied with three others for most wins).
Keep this mind about deGrom, too: He has four double-digit victory seasons in his eight-year career. The high-water mark? Just 15 in 2017.
Dodgers’ Duo Armed and Dangerous
Dodgers teammates Walker Buehler and Julio Urias are two of my favorite “chalky” selections to lead MLB in pitching wins in 2022.
First, let’s use the betting market to explain why both are worth eyeing. According to BetMGM, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the commanding favorites to win the most games in 2022 at +300 (the next-closest team is Toronto at +600).
Second, Buehler had the most quality starts (27) in 2021, besting American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays and the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara (tied with 23). Buehler’s ability to regularly pitch at least six innings and yield no more than three earned runs is a fabulous formula for winning games. The righty’s 16 wins were tied for the third-most in 2021, behind ageless Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright (17) and … his teammate, Urias.
Interestingly, Urias had only 13 quality starts last season, but the lefty had an MLB-best 20 wins. A big reason? The Dodgers’ elite offense and stellar bullpen.
That offense figures to be even more explosive this year, and Buehler and Urias once again will be the beneficiaries. Also worth noting: Buehler (207.2 regular-season innings) and Urias (185.2) ranked second and tied for 10th, respectively, in innings last year. Further, they threw in the postseason, creating the foundation for piling up innings and winning games with regularity in 2022.
Don’t Forget About Gausman, Valdez
It might seem odd to see the names Kevin Gausman and Framber Valdez alongside the likes of Cole, Buehler, deGrom, and Max Scherzer atop the pitching wins odds board. But it shouldn’t. Both are workhorses on two of baseball’s best teams (Gausman now with the Blue Jays, Valdez with the Astros). Needless to say, those two elements are key to becoming the MLB pitching wins leader.
Gausman tied for fifth in quality starts (20) last year, leading the staff of a San Francisco Giants team that came out of nowhere and finished with baseball’s best record. Meanwhile, Valdez only made 22 starts after opening the 2021 campaign on the IL with a broken finger, yet he finished tied for 36th in quality starts with 13.
As noted earlier, Toronto has the second-shortest odds (+600) to win the most games; Houston is fourth (+850). Thus, the betting market envisions the Blue Jays and Astros piling up victories. Should that pan out, their pitchers stand a good chance of ranking near the top of the league in wins.
Additionally, Gausman and Valdez have blossomed into frontline starters. According to FanGraphs, since 2020, Gausman has a 3.00 ERA and 3.38 SIERA in 251.2 innings, while Valdez has a 3.29 ERA and 3.60 SIERA in 205.1 innings.
Favorite Mid-Tier Option
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Brandon Woodruff (+2,500) is my pick to win the most games in 2022, odds considered. Given his ability, history, the team for whom he pitches, and the division in which that team resides, Woodruff should be priced among the top-10 pitchers. Full stop. Instead, BetMGM has him 13th.
Last year, Woodruff tied for the fifth-most quality starts (20). Further, all the pitchers tied with or ahead of him posted between 32 and 33 starts; he had just 30.
Woodruff’s excellence extends beyond quality starts, too. Out of 34 qualified pitchers since 2020, Woodruff rates third in ERA (2.70) fourth in SIERA (3.31). He’s unquestionably a stud.
Now, about Woodruff’s team and division: The Brewers are pegged to win 90 games this season, four more than the St. Louis Cardinals. Two other teams — the Pittsburgh Pirates (65.5 win total projection) and Cincinnati Reds (74) — are in a race to sink to the bottom of the division, while the Chicago Cubs (75.5) are still rebuilding after tearing down their roster last year.
Remember: The Brewers will play 57 of 162 games against the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs (and another 19 against St. Louis). That should translate into plenty of win opportunities for Woodruff (hence the reason he’s a top NL Cy Young candidate).
Favorite Long-Shot Options
Atlanta’s Charlie Morton (+4,000) and San Diego’s Yu Darvish (+5,000) are the long shots that jumped off the page when I first glanced at BetMGM’s odds. Morton rebounded from an underwhelming final season with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020, posting an excellent 2021 campaign with the Atlanta Braves. Sadly, his season came to an end in the postseason when he fractured his right leg. Thankfully, it appears the veteran right-hander will be on Atlanta’s Opening Day roster.
Last year, Morton was tied for 10th in innings (185.2), tied for ninth in quality starts (19), had a 3.34 ERA, 3.32 xERA, and 3.53 SIERA. Therefore, I don’t expect him to fall off the cliff, despite this being his age-38 season.
Finally, Darvish in 2021 had an unspectacular 4.22 ERA that was markedly worse than his ERA estimators (he had a 3.35 ERA and 3.49 SIERA). Thus, the 35-year-old right-hander was more unlucky than anything last year, making a bounce-back probable in 2022.
Don’t forget, Darvish was nothing short of spectacular with the Cubs in 2020. In 12 starts totaling 76.0 innings, he spun a 2.01 ERA, 2.99 xERA, and 3.14 SIERA. Does that mean I expect Darvish to duplicate his 2020 excellence in 2022? No, I won’t go that far. However, Darvish’s elite showing in 2020 coupled with his rock-solid ERA estimators in 2021 makes him an enticing long shot to roll the dice on leading MLB in wins this year.
