Mississippi State and Arizona both come into this game off of impressive wins in Week 1. The Bulldogs beat the Memphis Tigers by 26 points. The Wildcats beat the San Diego State Aztecs by 18 last week.
Although both teams are coming off of solid Week 1 wins, neither team is expected to be overly dominant this season. The Bulldogs are projected to be roughly an average team in the SEC, while the Wildcats are expected to be below average in the PAC-12.
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Mississippi State vs. Arizona predictions.
Mississippi State vs. Arizona Predictions
For my Mississippi State vs. Arizona picks, I’ll be placing these wagers at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Mississippi State vs. Arizona Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miss State | -10.5 | -380 | O 60.5 (-110) |
| @ Arizona | +10.5 | +310 | U 60.5 (-110) |
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. ET on Sep. 8.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Sep. 10
- Time: 11:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Arizona Stadium – Tucson, AZ
- TV: Fox Sports 1 (FS1)
Mississippi State vs. Arizona Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Arizona.
- Mississippi State finished the 2021 season with a 7-6 ATS record.
- Arizona posted a 6-6 ATS record last season.
- Both of these teams covered the spread in their only 2022 game.
- As of Thursday afternoon, 66% of the bets and 75% of the handle were on Mississippi State -11 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 56% of the bets and 63% of the handle is on over 59.5 points.
- Mississippi State hit the under in 53.9% of their games last season.
- Arizona hit the over in 50% of their games in 2021.
Which Passing Offense has the Edge?
These are two offenses that love throwing the ball. Mississippi State’s head coach Mike Leach is known for his air raid offense. Phil Steele projects the Bulldogs to rank fifth in the NCAA in passing yards per game this season.
That passing success started last week with Will Rogers throwing for 450 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 49 pass attempts. He completed 77.6% of his attempts as well. The veteran quarterback boasts tremendous upside, and he should continue to find elite success in this offense.
Arizona is running a spread concept this season, and Steele is projecting them to find plenty of success through the air in 2022. Jayden de Laura threw for 299 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 35 pass attempts last week. He wasn’t as efficient, though, as he completed only 62.9% of his passes.
It’s clear that Mississippi State has the better pass offense of the two teams. Arizona relies much more on the big play, which was fine last week with Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan averaging well over 15 yards per reception. This isn’t an overly sustainable option for a consistent offense.
Conference Competition
This is one of the keys to college football. Different conferences feature different levels of talent. The SEC is consistently seen as the best conference in college football, and this season isn’t going to be any different. The PAC-12 isn’t known as a football conference, and there’s no reason to believe they’re going to jump into the conversation in 2022.
The big question here is how much does it matter for this season specifically since it’s so early? Does playing in the SEC matter more than the PAC-12 when they haven’t played any conference games up until this point?
The short answer should be yes. Mississippi State’s players have several SEC games under their belt, giving them a better experience than Arizona’s players. Even the freshman have been practicing with these types of players, giving them the edge as well.
Playing in the SEC doesn’t mean all of their teams will beat every PAC-12 team. But it does give them an edge in competition.
Mississippi State vs. Arizona Predictions
This game could quickly turn into a shootout with the way both of these teams play. If that’s the case, Mississippi State should have a relatively large edge. They feature the better passing offense, and I trust Rogers over de Laura.
They also have the edge in competition, which could play a big role in this. Arizona doesn’t often see offenses like Mississippi State’s air raid offense, but the Bulldogs will see several offenses better than the Wildcats throughout the season.
The only major concern is that Mississippi State will be traveling out west for this game. That isn’t generally as big of an issue as traveling East, but it does raise a red flag for such a large spread. It just isn’t big enough of a red flag to pass on this number.
Pick: Mississippi State -10.5 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook