Back in the day — and by “the day,” we mean roughly the era when one of America’s chief forms of entertainment was watching President Roosevelt breaking up Standard Oil for Saturday night yuks — bookies set the numbers at horse tracks. That was the case for Kentucky Derby odds from the race’s inception in 1875.
Then for years, pari-mutuel wagering became the standard in most racing worldwide. The 1908 Kentucky Derby was the first Run for the Roses to use it, and it’s ostensibly been the only mode of American horse betting for more than 100 years. But it’s not without its own issues. You can bet a horse at 5/1 but watch as more bettors pile on, dropping the price to 2/1 by post time. Worse, large syndicates using software and precision timing have been known to get down so close to the break that you can see the odds drop right after the race goes off.
One solution that’s been advocated is fixed-odds wagering, just like your garden variety sports bet. You know, the one you lost just last night.
It brings us full circle to the top-hat days. This year, Monmouth Park in Oceanport, New Jersey, will be the first track of record to offer fixed-odds options as an alternative to pari-mutuel. And fixed Kentucky Derby odds — along with odds for other big race days — have been on the menu in Las Vegas at Circa Sports since 2020.
Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
| Epicenter | +515 |
| Zandon | +580 |
| Messier | +595 |
| Taiba | +630 |
| Mo Donegal | +1200 |
| Smile Happy | +1200 |
| White Abarrio | +1400 |
| Charge it | +1600 |
| Cyberknife | +1600 |
| Zozos | +2300 |
| Simplification | +2800 |
| Tiz the Bomb | +2800 |
| Crown Pride | +3200 |
| Barber Road | +4000 |
| Classic Causeway | +4200 |
| Early Voting | +4500 |
| Pioneer of Medina | +6700 |
| Tawny Port | +9000 |
| Un Ojo | +11,500 |
| Happy Jack | +12,000 |
| Summer is Tomorrow | +11,500 |
| In Due Time | +12,500 |
| Ethereal Road | +150,000 |
Odds via Circa Sports as of 3 p.m. ET April 29.
The Price is the Price
What do fixed-odds mean for you, the once-a-year-on-Derby Day horse bettor? Overall, it might mean only slight variations on the numbers you’ll see on race day at the track. But it can mean opportunity in a couple of key cases, according to Ed DeRosa, vice president of content and product development at Horse Racing Nation.
If you like Messier (the horse, not the Hall of Fame Oilers/Rangers great.), the California speedster is the third choice on Circa Sports’ Kentucky Derby odds menu at +595. It’s a number that DeRosa says you’d be better off taking your chances in the pari-mutuel pools.
“I’d be a little nervous about taking that price right now. I don’t think he’ll be a lower price on Derby Day, and there’s a chance he might be higher. The horse, along with Taiba, is probably the third choice of this bunch. With the 20-horse field, that could mean anywhere from 5 or 6/1 to as high as 8-1.”
The Right Bet for the Job
There are a couple of scenarios where fixed-odds bets are a useful tool. One is if there’s a defection from the race among the four main contenders: favorite Epicenter (+515), Zandon (+580), Messier, or Taiba (+630). If that happens, prices on the next tier of horses could come down significantly. A +1200 ticket on Mo Donegal today would be worth significantly less on the first Saturday in May.
The other is the Mattress Mack factor. Last year, Houston mattress impresario Jim McIngvale added a couple million dollars to the pools with wagers on Essential Quality, sending the post-time favorite off at less than 3-1. This year, Mack hasn’t picked his pony but he’s said bringing a horse down to 3-1 is his sweet spot.
“He’s talked about the straight favorite or the top two favorites,” Circa Sports risk supervisor Paul Zilm said. “Locking in those odds now if you like one of those four horses might not be a bad idea. I don’t think you’re going to see 5/1 on Epicenter or 6/1 on Zandon next week.”
Another chance to make fixed-odds work in your favor is on horses that are on the outside looking in. The Derby field is capped at 20, and entry is based on a points system earned from winning or finishing well in qualifying races. But if there are defections, the field will be filled with the next available points earner.
In this case, it’s Pioneer of Medina, who sits at +6700 (67/1) in Circa’s odds to win the Kentucky Derby.
“He needs a defection to get in, which I think he’ll get. I’m basically handicapping the race assuming he’s involved,” DeRosa said. “You’re betting a horse who literally isn’t even in the gate at this point. I think he’s probably 90 percent to make the gate, 5 percent to win the race. That math gets you probably around 25/1. So 65/1 is a fantastic price.”
Something For the Fans — For a Change
As horse racing sheds casual fans outside of its biggest race days, fixed-odds wagering is seen by some as a way to help bring some interest back into the game. Operators have mostly resisted it for various reasons, though its inclusion at Monmouth is an experiment the industry will be watching.
Widespread sports betting is making people more comfortable with betting odds. If nothing else, it can add a bit of familiarity to a betting scene that can be byzantine and intimidating to novices. (I assure you, reading past performances is fun and worth learning, but you’ll take one look at 6-point agate type and assume I’m trying to run a convoluted scam.)
“We see a good mix of sharp players and people who are just horse racing fans,” Zilm said. “I know we have players who don’t play with us for anything else but this fixed odds pool. You also get the recreation crowd. People who are in town whose friends said can you put 20 bucks on this horse. It’s been a good mix.”
It also affords more opportunity for bookmakers to apply to racing some of the creativity we’ve seen in other big-event markets.
“I would implore them to figure this out,” DeRosa said. “Even as much as racing, in general, might be suffering day-to-day, the Derby is 100 percent still the Derby. I don’t know how you look at what the Super Bowl and March Madness get in PR, and the interest that’s generated from future markets, and don’t want the Derby to be a part of it, too. You don’t necessarily need to offer a market on every race, every day, but to me, the 2023 Derby market should be open at 7 p.m. May 7.”
