The Jets and Jaguars are heading in opposite directions. Will the Jets rebound? Can the Jags remain hot against New York’s stout defense? These two AFC clubs have exceeded preseason expectations and are fighting for a playoff berth in the ultra-competitive AFC. The betting info suggests it should be a competitive affair. We’ll parse through the data and decide the best means of betting on this game with our Jets vs. Jaguars prediction.
Jets vs. Jaguars Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | +1 | -105 | O 38 (-110) |
| @ Jets | -1 | -115 | U 38 (-110) |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of 12 a.m. ET on Dec. 21. Check out our BetMGM Sportsbook Review to redeem up to a $1,000 risk-free bet.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 22
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
- TV: Amazon
Jets vs. Jaguars Trends
- There hasn’t been and isn’t line consensus across sportsbooks. In fact, the Jaguars are favored, even, and underdogs depending on the sportsbook.
- The Jets are 0-4 against the spread in their last four Thursday games.
- New York is 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
- The Jaguars are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games versus an AFC opponent.
- Jacksonville is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games.
- The Jaguars are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Can Gang Green’s Defense Offset Their QB Problem?
There’s no denying how good New York’s defense has been this year. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jets have allowed the second-fewest yards per play (4.8) and tied for the fourth-best scoring defense (18.8 points per game). Additionally, per Football Outsiders, they’re fourth in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 11th in rush defense DVOA, and second in pass defense DVOA since Week 9.
However, there is one category they lag in. The Jets are tied for 22nd in turnovers forced (15). Sadly, they might need to generate turnovers to offset Zach Wilson’s ineptitude.
Mike White is out, leaving Wilson in his stead again this week. The second pick in the 2021 NFL Draft is still a roaring tire fire. The Jets have averaged only 20.5 points per game in Wilson’s eight starts this year, and they managed just 17 points in Wilson’s return to the starting lineup last week.
New York’s offense generated an underwhelming 337 total yards and had a turnover. In addition, Wilson was inaccurate (18-35) and mistake-prone (four sacks and one interception). The interception was mindbogglingly bad, too.
Picked! @Lions are deep into Jets territory following the turnover. #OnePride
📺: #DETvsNYJ on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/nW0d7KOLXR pic.twitter.com/bWg1ZQV9UJ— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022
Trevor Lawrence is the Real Deal
The No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft had his rookie season derailed by professional donkey Urban Meyer. Lawrence wasn’t lights out to begin his sophomore campaign but flashed the talent that made him the first pick. The light has come on recently, though.
Lawrence has earned Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) highest passing grade out of 31 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 60 times since Week 12. He’s completed 67.8% of his passes for 1,186 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception.
Lawrence’s outburst has fueled impressive scoring outputs for the Jags. Since Jacksonville’s bye in Week 11, they’ve scored 28, 14, 36, and 40 points. They’ve also had more than 425 yards of offense in back-to-back games. Jacksonville’s offense can genuinely test Gang Green’s elite defense.
Jets vs. Jaguars Prediction
Jacksonville’s defense isn’t up to the high standard of their offense. Fortunately, they have a few eye-catching stats. While they surrender too many yards and points, the Jags also generate pressure and force turnovers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jaguars are tied for the fourth-most turnovers (22) and have the sixth-highest pressure rate (24.2%).
So, while both teams are flawed, Jacksonville’s defense has more positives than New York’s offense when led by Wilson. The Jaguars have won three of four games since their bye, and those wins were against teams presently in a playoff spot. Conversely, the Jets have lost three in a row and four in five contests since their bye in Week 10.
The Jets have home-field advantage, but I’ll gladly bet on the team with the vastly superior quarterback when the spread is small, and the teams are nearly evenly matched. Thus, I love the Jaguars’ odds of winning, and getting a point at BetMGM Sportsbook is gravy.
Pick: Jaguars +1 | -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook
