The Jaguars and Titans are playing for all the marbles in the AFC South. The winner claims the division title and a playoff berth. Jacksonville’s blossoming quarterback torched the Titans in the first meeting and could do the same in the rematch. Additionally, another star from the first game has an inviting over. Let’s run through the top three Jaguars vs. Titans player props for this game on Saturday, Jan. 7.
Jaguars vs. Titans Player Props: Week 18
For a full list of Jaguars vs. Titans player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Trevor Lawrence Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Trevor Lawrence has distanced himself from the stench of Urban Meyer’s pitiful NFL coaching career. The sophomore signal-caller has played exceptionally well, including shredding the Titans in Week 14. Lawrence passed for 368 yards in a 36-22 victory.
Yes, Lawrence passed for only 229 and 152 yards in his last two games of the year. However, it was rainy in Week 16, and the Jags destroyed the Texans in Week 17. Lawrence had more than 300 yards in three of his four previous games.
Jacksonville has put a lot on Lawrence’s plate, using a pass-first offense. According to numberFire, Jacksonville’s attempted 106 passes and 67 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 11. They’ve also stayed aggressive when crushing their opponents, attempting 50 passes and 41 rushes by non-quarterbacks when leading by at least eight points in their last six games.
On the flip side, the Titans have a pass-funnel defense. Tennessee’s opponents have attempted 197 passes and 112 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 11. Teams have also attempted 46 passes and 33 passes when leading by at least eight points during that timeframe.
Teams are wise for attacking the Titans through the air since Tennessee’s lousy when defending the pass. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans are 31st in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). So, I fully expect Lawrence to smash them again and eclipse 263.5 passing yards.
Where to bet: Trevor Lawrence Over 263.5 Passing Yards | -120 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Lawrence can hurt the Titans on the ground, too. He’s averaged 18.4 rushing yards per game and bested 14.5 rushing yards eight times. In addition, Lawrence opened the year slow on the ground and has rushed for more than 14.5 yards in eight of his last 12 games.
He’s a legitimate threat on the ground. Lawrence is also an efficient scrambler. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he’s scrambled for only 24 yards but averaged 9.1 yards per scramble.
Further, the Jaguars might be more willing to use him as a runner, and he might take advantage of his rushing ability more often when opportunities present themselves in a must-win game. For instance, Patrick Mahomes is a capable runner and has seen a significant uptick in rushing production in the postseason. Mahomes averages 19.2 rushing yards per game in the regular season and 29.4 rushing yards per game in the playoffs.
It makes intuitive sense for capable running quarterbacks to ramp up their production when it counts the most since the juice isn’t worth the squeeze to take risks during the regular season. So, between Lawrence’s recent output and the stakes of this game, I love Lawrence’s odds of eclipsing 14.5 rushing yards.
Where to bet: Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Evan Engram Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
Evan Engram clowned the Titans in Week 14, catching 11 passes for 162 yards and two touchdowns on 15 targets. All of those marks were season highs. Still, Engram had at least five receptions in four of his last five games, and the outlier was a blowout win against the Texans last week.
The Titans have also struggled with competent tight ends lately. In Tennessee’s last seven games, Engram, Dalton Schultz (seven receptions), and Hayden Hurst (six) each went over 4.5 receptions. Moreover, Gerald Everett and Donald Parham combined for seven receptions as part of the Chargers’ tight end committee. Houston’s trio of Jordan Akins, Brevin Jordan, and Teagan Quitoriano also had five receptions against the Titans. Engram isn’t in a committee and already trounced the Titans. Thus, he’s an excellent bet for more than 4.5 receptions, and FanDuel Sportsbook has a markedly less juicy line than other sportsbooks.
Where to bet: Evan Engram Over 4.5 Receptions | -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook