It was a tumultuous offseason for Major League Baseball, with the owners locking out the players for 99 days. However, the two sides finally agreed to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement earlier this month, allowing a full 162-game schedule.
A delayed Opening Day is now scheduled for April 7, which leaves plenty of time to place some 2022 MLB futures wagers. That includes an always-popular prop that asks bettors to answer a simple question: Who will be the home run champion?
Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a break down of home run leader odds for 2022, including our favorite bets. (Hint: Our pick to hit the most long balls is a long shot on the MLB home run futures board.)
Home Run Champion Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | +1,000 |
| Pete Alonso | New York Mets | +1,200 |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | +1,400 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Angels | +1,600 |
| Joey Gallo | New York Yankees | +1,600 |
| Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | +2,000 |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | +2,000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | New York Yankees | +2,000 |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | +2,500 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | +2,500 |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 2:40 p.m. ET on March 28.
Fading Some Favorites
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the favorite to lead MLB in homers in 2022. Last year, he blasted 48 bombs, which tied Kansas City catcher Salvador Perez for most in baseball. Nevertheless, I’ll fade the chalk.
For one thing, Guerrero benefited from Canada’s strict COVID-19 travel restrictions that kept the Blue Jays out of Toronto until July 30. Prior to that, the Jays split home games between their spring training facility in Dunedin, Florida, and Triple-A stadium in Buffalo, New York.
Here’s why that matters: Adjusting for ballpark factors, Dunedin yielded the second-most homers in 2021 (1.456), while Buffalo was seventh (1.300). The Rogers Centre in Toronto was 12th (1.093). Predictably, Vladito made a mockery of the minor-league ballparks. According to FanGraphs, in 194 plate appearances in those parks, Guerrero swatted 21 homers. Comparatively, he hit 27 homers in his other 504 plate appearances.
Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, and Giancarlo Stanton also are among the top eight favorites to win the 2022 home run title. And they, too, join my primary fades.
New York City Mayor Adams recently lifted the vaccine mandate for the city’s performers and athletes, eliminating concerns about unvaccinated Yankees and Mets players being unable to play in home games. However, unvaccinated players won’t be able to play in Canada, potentially keeping “a chunk” of the middle of New York’s order on the south side of the border during the Yankees’ three regular-season trips to Toronto.
Focusing solely on Judge, he’s obviously one of baseball’s most prodigious power hitters. But he was evasive when asked about his vaccination status. How can you justify place a futures wager on Judge when he might miss nine games against the division-rival Blue Jays? Gallo and Stanton are vaccine question marks as well. More importantly, each has swing-and-miss issues that make them dodgy picks regardless.
Of course, these guys are among the favorites for a reason: They all have the ability to hit bombs in bunches. But while it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of them win the home run title, the betting value lies elsewhere.
Back, Back, Back … Alonso and Olson
New York Mets mountain man Pete Alonso won the homer crown in 2019 with 53 bombs. Last year, though, the first baseman fell to 13th with 37 taters. However, 20 of those came down the stretch (tied for sixth-most post All-Star break). Further, since 2019, Alonso has hit an MLB-high 106 homers, 11 clear of the second-highest total.
In other words, assuming good health, the 27-year-old Alonso should be in the mix for home run champion honors. And even though he’s the second choice on the board, at 12/1 odds, that’s still a solid payout.
Also worth a look is player sporting 20/1 odds: Matt Olson. The Atlanta Braves’ new first baseman has tied for the third-most homers (89) since 2019, despite playing in a homer-suppressing home ballpark. According to FantasyPros, the Oakland Coliseum has had the fourth-lowest park factor for left-handed homers (0.810) over the past three seasons. At the other end of the spectrum, Atlanta’s Truist Park has had the ninth-highest park factor for left-handed blasts (1.107) during the same three-year period.
Predictably, Olson’s former home park cut into his homer total. Consider: He slugged 40 homers in 726 plate appearances in Oakland from 2019-21. On the road, he blasted 49 in 739 plate appearances. So since 2019, Olson has hit nine more homers on the road in only 13 more plate appearances.
Finally, Olson had excellent Statcast data last year. According to Baseball Savant, out of 404 hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events, Olson tied for 48th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity rate (96.1 mph) and 39th in “barrels” rate (8.8 Brls/PA%).
Favorite Mid-Tier Options
Cleveland Guardians (formerly Indians) outfielder Franmil Reyes is a hulking figure who puts a charge into the ball. Focusing on players with at least 100 batted-ball events in 2021, “Franimal” was tied for 24th in Barrels rate (9.9 Brls/PA%) and tied for 15th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.9 mph). As a result, he mashed 30 taters in just 466 plate appearances. Still, his best homer days might be ahead of him.
According to FanGraphs, Reyes has had a meager 33.9 FB% in his career. However, he had a career-high 36.0 FB% in 2021. Also, he had his highest launch angle (11.2 degrees) in 2020. Is Reyes ready to take to the sky and challenge for a home-run crown? At +3,000 odds (30/1), I’m tempted to toss something on it happening.
Same goes for Toronto outfielder Teoscar Hernandez at +5,000 (50/1). Yes, I cautioned against backing the Blue Jays’ Guerrero to win the home run title because of his ballpark-inflated totals from 2021. But there are two key differences at play here. First, Hernandez’s odds are much longer than Vladdy Jr.’s. Second, Hernandez oddly didn’t feast in Dunedin and Buffalo last season like his teammate. Of the slugger’s 32 homers in 595 plate appearances in 2021, only six came in his temporary homes (in 158 plate appearances).
Hernandez also checks the Statcast boxes. In 2021, he was tied for 38th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.3 mph), tied for 31st in Barrels rate (9.4 Brls/PA%), and tied for 30th in max exit velocity (115.7 mph).
Since 2020, Hernandez’s 48 homers in 802 plate appearances are tied for the 13th most with Max Muncy, Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz, Bryce Harper, Judge, and Gallo. In other words, Hernandez shares good company with three players (Harper, Judge, and Gallo) in the top-10 on the MLB home run odds board. Yet he’s tied for 19th shortest odds. That’s some pretty good betting value.
Favorite Long-Shot Options
Two outfielders — the Marlins’ Jorge Soler (+5,000) and Twins’ Byron Buxton (+10,000) — close the show as my two favorite long shots. Since 2019, Soler is tied for the sixth-most homers (83) in MLB. He had a rough start to last year with the Royals, but turned the ship around after getting traded to the Braves. In the second half, Soler was tied with Alonso for the sixth-most homers (20). Then he went on to take home World Series MVP honors.
True, playing home games at Miami’s loanDepot park is suboptimal for homers. But it’s an upgrade from Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium for right-handed blasts — 0.853 versus 0.796. Soler didn’t have any issues combatting either of his home ballparks in 2019, ranking third with 48 homers.
Buxton has never once finished a season with 20 homers. But that’s not because he lacks power; it’s because he lacks consistent health, having been bitten by the injury bug multiple times in his career. When he has been on the field, Buxton has shown he has pop in his bat: In 684 plate appearances since 2019, he has hit 42 homers.
Further, Buxton has done his most extensive damage since 2020, clobbering 32 homers in 389 plate appearances. Based on that pace, Buxton would have needed 596 plate appearances to hit 49 homers last year, which would’ve been enough to best Guerrero and Perez’s MLB-high 48. Here’s the huge difference: Guerrero (698 plate appearances) and Perez (665) needed far more trips to the plate.
Finally, Buxton has backed up his homer production with eye-popping Statcast numbers. Last year, he was tied for 32nd in max exit velocity (115.6 mph), tied for 15th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.9 mph), and tied for third in Barrels rate (12.2 Brls/PA%). So I’ll grab a piece of Buxton’s 100/1 odds to lead MLB in homers in 2022 … then pray he finally stays healthy.
