The Heat are gearing up for a showdown against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday, Mar 26. Today’s game is scheduled to start at 7:30 ET and will be broadcast on NBCS. Golden State comes into this matchup as 2-point favorites, with the over/under set at 218. Will the Warriors manage to secure a win as the favorite? Below, you’ll find our Heat vs. Warriors player props and predictions.
Heat vs. Warriors Odds
- Spread: Warriors -2
- Total 218
Odds via FanDuel SportsBook. New To FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,000 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Tuesday, Mar 26
- Time: 7:30 ET
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami FL
- TV: NBCS
Warriors Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Although Golden State has a straight up record of 1-2 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 112 points per game in these games.
- Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Warriors have a straight up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.
Heat Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
- When looking at their past ten home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 104 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
- The last five games that Miami was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 1-4 straight up.
Does Golden State Have What it Takes on the Road?
Today, the Warriors are favored by 2 points against the Heat. This season, Golden State has been favored in 45 of their 70 games and has a record of 29-16 in those games. As the favorite, they have gone 22-23 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +4.7 points per game.
On the season, the Warriors have an O/U record of 35-34-1, with an average over/under line of 232.2. In their last game against the Timberwolves, the teams combined for 224 points, which was higher than the O/U line of 220.5.
Golden State’s ATS record for the season is 37-32, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. On the road, they are 22-11 ATS compared to 15-21 at home.
Despite their 114-110 loss to the Timberwolves, the Warriors are still in 10th place in the Western Conference with a record of 36-34. In Pacific Division play, they are 6-9 and 19-24 against other Western Conference teams. This season, the Warriors are 18-15 on the road.
On the season, the Warriors are ranked 7th in the NBA in scoring at 118.3 points per game. Interestingly, they have actually been better on the road, averaging 118.8 points compared to 117.9 at home.
Golden State is known for their three-point shooting, and they are 2nd in the league in both three-point attempts and makes at 39.4 and 14.8 per game, respectively. Overall, they are hitting 37% of their threes, which is 9th in the NBA.
When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the Warriors are 24th in attempts at 20.8 per game. In terms of pace, they are 7th in the league at 99.9 possessions per game.
Coming into today’s game, the Warriors’ defense is giving up an average of 116.8 points per contest. Golden State’s defense is currently forcing 13.7 turnovers per game, which is 23rd in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 27th in blocked shots, with an average of 4.3 rejections per game.
Will the Miami Defense Show Up at Home?
Miami’s ATS record this season is 33-35 overall and 13-21 at home. As the underdog, they are 16-15 ATS on the road and 11-20 as the underdog overall. Today, they are getting 2 points as the underdog.
In terms of their O/U record, Miami is 26-45 for the season. 24 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s line of 218. On average, their games have finished with 218.4 points.
The Heat won their last game against the Cavaliers by a score of 121-84. They were favored by 3.5 points in that game and easily covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 202.5.
Currently, Miami is 7th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 39-32. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place. Against other Eastern Conference teams, the Heat are 27-18 compared to 12-14 against the West.
In their games this season, the Heat have been the underdog in 31 of their 71 games. As the underdog, they have a scoring differential of -2.3 points per game. On average, they are outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per game at home and 0.9 points per game on the road.
At home, the Heat are scoring 112.2 points per game, which is 22nd in the NBA. Overall, they are 27th in scoring at 109.6 points per game.
In terms of pace, Miami is 29th in the league at 95.6 possessions per game.
From beyond the arc, the Heat are shooting 36% as a team, which is 12th in the NBA. They are 23rd in two-point field goal percentage at 52%.
Coming into today’s game, the Heat’s defense is giving up an average of 108.9 points per contest. On two point field goal attempts, the Heat’s defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.0% and allowing 36.3% from beyond the arc.
Heat vs. Warriors Player Prop
A player prop we are looking at is Stephen Curry and his points prop of 25.5. Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -111 while the under is at -115. With his prop line at 25.5, our model indicates that taking the over is the way to go as we project him to end up with 27. We foresee him having a field goal percentage of 45.0% and connecting on five threes.
- The Prop: Stephen Curry Over 25.5 Points (-111)
Heat vs. Warriors Predictions
Coming in as the underdogs at +2, we have the Heat as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.
As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 218 and our model has the Warriors and Heat finishing with a combined 221 points. Our pick is to take the over.
The Pick: Heat +2 | at Fanduel Sportsbook