Monday features Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and we have four Heat vs Celtics props teed up for this matchup.
Boston was able to jump out to a strong start in Game 1, taking an eight-point lead into halftime. However, the Heat stormed back in the third quarter for a decisive victory. Boston was able to even the series at one game apiece in Game 2, but the Heat secured a massive upset victory in Boston in Game 3. Can the Heat grab full control of the series with another victory in Boston, or will the Celtics tie things up before heading back to Miami?
Let’s dive into our top Heat vs Celtics props for Game 4, featuring two Heat player props and two Celtics player props.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 12 p.m. ET on May 23.
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Miami Heat Player Props
Center Bam Adebayo
The prop: 28.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -150/Under -120
Targeting props during the NBA playoffs is always a delicate balancing act. You never want to overreact to one performance, which is why it often makes sense to sell high on a player after a big outing. Adebayo is coming off arguably the best postseason contest of his career in Game 3 vs the Celtics — finishing with 31 points, 10 boards, six assists, four steals, and one blocked shot.
However, Adebayo’s performances in the previous four contests were so bad that his current PRA prop is still too low. He averaged just 9.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 0.8 assists in those contests, but there were extenuating circumstances in three of them. Two of them were against Joel Embiid, which is one of the toughest possible matchups for an opposing center. The third performance came in a blowout loss where he played just 28.7 minutes.
Ultimately, the buy-low window on Adebayo is still open. He averaged 19.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game during the regular season, which would be more than enough to hit the over on his current prop. The Celtics matchup could also be extremely favorable if Robert Williams is ruled out for the second straight game.
Point Guard Kyle Lowry
The prop: 5.5 assists
The odds: Over +110/Under -145
Lowry and his big ole’ booty returned to the lineup on Saturday following a four-game absence. He’s on the injury report as questionable once again for Game 4 – as is virtually the entire Heat roster – but there’s no reason to expect him to sit out.
Lowry showed no real signs of rust in his return to action, finishing with 11 points, six dimes, and four rebounds. He was asked to shoulder a bit more of the load without Jimmy Butler during the second half, and Butler is expected to suit up on Monday. Still, asking Lowry to hand out at least six assists is extremely reasonable. Let’s remember that he averaged 7.5 assists per game during the regular season.
Boston Celtics Player Props
Forward Grant Williams
The prop: 9.5 points
The odds: Over -115/Under -110
Williams has been a massive part of the Celtics’ rotation this postseason, but he’s the type of player whose biggest contributions don’t show up in the box score. He erupted for 27 points in Game 7 vs. the Bucks, but that game was the definition of an outlier. The Bucks basically dared Williams to shoot the ball from 3-point range, and he finished with a ridiculous 18 attempts from downtown.
Williams has also scored at least 10 points in back-to-back games, but he’s shot 7-13 from the field and 4-6 from 3-point range in those contests. That makes him a candidate for some regression moving forward.
Overall, Williams has scored nine points or fewer in eight of 14 contests this postseason. If Robert Williams is able to return to the lineup on Monday, then Grant Williams’ playing time could also take a significant hit. Grant Williams saw more than 39 minutes in his last contest, which was his second-highest mark of the postseason. This seems like the perfect time to sell high.
Forward Jayson Tatum
The prop: 27.5 points
The odds: Over -125/Under +100
On the other end of the spectrum, Tatum is coming off an embarrassing performance in his last outing. He finished with just 10 points on 3-14 shooting, and he actually had more turnovers than points in the second half. The Celtics were able to nearly overcome a massive deficit in the second half, but 13 combined turnovers from Tatum and Jaylen Brown killed that dream.
I still think Tatum is a full-fledged superstar, but some people will point to those random clunkers as his last remaining flaw. A star player needs to show up in every postseason contest, and Tatum hasn’t hit that threshold yet.
Fortunately, that does create some value in the Heat vs Celtics props market. Tatum has a tendency to bounce back following a down performance. He now has three performances with less than 20 points during the postseason, and he’s scored at least 30 points in the following contest in the previous two. Expect him to make it 3-3 on Monday.
Most Popular Heat vs Celtics Player Props
UPDATE 4:50 P.M. ET: The most bet Heat vs Celtics props for Game 4 according to PointsBet:
- Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 points (-125)
- Al Horford Over 11.5 points (-115)
- Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 points (-131)
- Bam Adebayo Over 8.5 rebounds (-145)
- Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 points (-121)
