The Los Angeles Dodgers are running away with the Nationals League West. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants are two games under .500 after winning the division last year and boasting MLB’s best record.
It’s a lopsided contest, but things can always be interesting in this heated rivalry. Will the Giants play spoilers tonight against a top-shelf lefty? What’s the best action to get on tonight’s NL West battle? Check out the betting info and game preview below to find our favorite bet and make an informed decision.
Giants vs Dodgers Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers (Urias) | -1.5 (-105) | -176 | O 7.5 (-110) |
| @ Giants (Cobb) | +1.5 (-114) | +148 | U 7.5 (-110) |
Odds via FanDuel as of 10 am ET on Aug. 3.
Urias: Lefty Ace
Urias vs Giants: Julio Urias has been great this year by every measure. According to FanGraphs, in 20 starts totaling 109.2 innings, he’s had a 2.71 ERA, 2.81 xERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 23.8 K%.
The lefty has been even sharper lately, though. In Urias’s previous 10 starts spanning 56.2 innings, he’s had a 2.54 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 27.7 K%. The lefty has also been outstanding on the road. In 61.1 innings on the road this season, Urias has had a 2.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 24.2 K%. Further, if you remove Urias’s three trips to Coors Field from his ledger, his strikeout rate on the road surges to 27.5%.
Giants Offense: San Francisco’s platoon-heavy offense is tied for sixth in wRC+ (114) against lefties in 2022. Sadly, they traded integral lefty-masher Darin Ruf to the New York Mets. Thus, they removed one of their best weapons against lefties from their lineup.
In addition, the Giants have been below-average at the dish lately. Over the last 30 days, they’re 19th in wRC+ (98). Finally, they’re only mid-pack with a .319 wOBA at home, ranking 13th in home wOBA. So, they’re not a pushover for Urias, but they’re not as dangerous as their top-10 wRC+ against lefties indicates.
Cobb: Unlucky?
Cobb vs Dodgers: Alex Cobb’s 4.06 ERA is mediocre. However, the righty’s ERA estimators have all been markedly better. For instance, Cobb has a 2.75 xERA, 2.81 xFIP, and 3.06 SIERA.
The veteran righty has been killed by a 60.9 LOB%, much lower than the 2022 league average of 72.2 LOB%. However, regressing Cobb’s LOB% to the league average is not fair. From 2018-2020, he had a 69.4 LOB%. Therefore, Cobb was a decent bet to underachieve in that metric anyway. Regardless, he’s still been unlucky.
Although, his fortune has improved considerably lately. In his previous nine starts, Cobb has had a 2.68 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 22.2 K% in 50.1 innings. He’s also been lights out at home. Cobb has treated the home crowd to a sparkling 2.84 ERA in 50.2 innings.
Dodgers Offense: The Dodgers offense is a juggernaut. They’re first in wRC+ (122) and fourth in ISO (.188) against right-handed pitchers this season. But, remarkably, they’ve been in better form lately, ranking second with a 139 wRC+ and .208 ISO over the last 30 days.
Moreover, the Dodgers’ bats have traveled with them this year. In fact, no offense has been better on the road. The Dodgers have had an MLB-high .342 wOBA in road games. So, the Dodgers are in the discussion for the best offense in baseball.
Giants vs Dodgers Prediction
The Dodgers have handled their business on the road, against righties, and facing sub-.500 teams. According to Baseball-Reference, the Dodgers are 35-18 on the road, 47-21 against righties, and a blistering 49-19 against teams below .500 this season.
Meanwhile, the Giants have a 21-16 record against lefties and a 29-25 record at home. Sadly, they’re 23-30 against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers should beat their division rivals.
However, I’m not keen on eating chalk. So instead, I like parlaying the Dodgers on the moneyline with a Freddie Freeman hit for a -102 line at FanDuel. In 28 games since July 1, Freeman has recorded at least one hit 24 times. Freeman has had a .342 batting average against righties, and he’s stepped his game up on the road, recording a .349 batting average against right-handed hurlers in road games.
The Pick: Same-Game Parlay – Dodgers ML and Freeman to Record a Hit | -102 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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