Here’s hoping you profited from Thursday’s NHL props, as we went 4-for-5, including a solid +170 winner on the Flames-Canadiens alternate total! Let’s build on that success with our Friday NHL props selections.
Here are our top five plays from tonight’s seven-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel updated 2 p.m. ET on Mar. 4.
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Minnesota Wild: C Ryan Hartman
The Prop: 2.5 shots on goal (at Buffalo)
The Odds: Over +112/Under -148
The recency bias is strong in the odds here, as Hartman has stayed Under 2.5 shots in four of his last five games. However, he’s still averaging exactly three shots per game over the course of the season, and he put up six shots (and two goals) during Thursday’s 5-4 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.
Hartman has hit the Over on this prop in 30 of 52 games this season, including 21 of 33 when the Wild are favored. Even better, he’s put at least three pucks on net 69.2 percent of the time when facing teams with a losing record (averaging 3.5 shots per contest in that scenario). Lest we remind you that Buffalo absolutely has a losing record.
Speaking of the Sabres, they yield 34.3 shots per game, third-most in the league, and they’ve allowed their opponents’ first-line center to record at least three shots in four of the last six contests. How many shots did Buffalo surrender to Hartman when these teams faced off in mid-December? Five. And Minnesota actually lost that game, 3-2 at home.
New Jersey Devils: RW Jesper Bratt
The Prop: 0.5 assists (at N.Y. Rangers)
The Odds: Over +122/Under -150
This prop features a weird case in which a team’s leader in assists is still plus-money to hit the Over. Bratt paces the Devils with 31 assists in 49 games, all while playing mostly second-line minutes. How has the 23-year-old Swede been able to pull that off? He plays on New Jersey’s top power-play unit.
Jesper Bratt now has 50 points in 48 games
He is the quickest Devil to 50 points since 2017-18, where Taylor Hall did it in 45 games
He was called an AHLer, a 30 point player, but at some point we’re going to have to start calling him what he is…
One of the best #NJDevils pic.twitter.com/z4LPaglhlS
— Gianni (@GianniNJD) March 1, 2022
Bratt has scored an assist in six of nine games since Jan. 31, and he had a helper in his only other meeting against Rangers this season back in mid-November. What’s more, Bratt has bagged an apple in 19 of 29 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
While New Jersey will face a tough test against Rangers goaltender/Vezina Trophy frontrunner Igor Shesterkin, we think the Bratt Pack is up to the challenge — especially in a rivalry game.
Detroit Red Wings: C Dylan Larkin
The Prop: Score anytime goal (at Tampa Bay)
The Odds: +165
Larkin has quietly tallied 27 goals in 49 games this season, tied for 11th in the league. We say “quietly,” because while the Red Wings’ offense hasn’t been spectacular (2.91 goals per game, 19th in NHL), Larkin is once again one of the league’s least-discussed stars.
Another reason to back the 25-yeaer-old from Michigan, even against the two-time defending champs? He’s running hot. Larkin has seven goals in his last 10 games, and he’s lit the lamp at least once in nine of his last 15 (including three of the past five). He’s also found the back of the net in precisely half his road contests (10 of 20) and half his games against Eastern Conference foes (13 of 26).
One more advantage for Larkin: Tampa Bay is expected to go with backup goaltender Brian Elliott tonight. Elliott has solid numbers on the season (5-2-2, .902 save percentage, 2.62 GAA), but he’s only played in one game since January 11. If he comes out as rusty as we predict, even Detroit’s pedestrian offense should have a decent night — with the unheralded Larkin leading the charge.
(By the way, the first of Larkin’s 27 goals this season came on opening night … against Tampa Bay.)
Dallas Stars: D Miro Heiskanen
The Prop: 0.5 total points (at Winnipeg)
The Odds: Over +112/Under -138
We teetered back and forth on this one. Heiskanen hasn’t quite lived up to the offensive expectations that were placed on his shoulders early on, but he’s still an excellent defenseman who delivers consistent production. To that point: Heiskanen leads all Dallas d-men in points (four goals, 25 assists in 52 games).
Working in his favor Friday, the Jets have allowed a primary point to a defenseman in five of their last six contests. However, the one exception was against the Stars. Heiskanen has cleared this prop just eight times in 24 road games and 12 times in 30 outings against Western Conference clubs.
Most recently, the fourth-year pro from Finland has tallied points in just two of his last 10 overall. The opponent in two of those point-less contests? Winnipeg. In fact, Heiskanan has yet to see his name on the scoresheet in three games versus the Jets this season.
The Under is the wise play here.
Anaheim Ducks: RW Troy Terry
The Prop: Score anytime goal (vs. Vegas)
The Odds: +150
Terry’s fourth full NHL season has been a memorable one, to say the least. After scoring just 15 goals in 127 games the previous three campaigns, Terry has busted out for 27 goals this season (same as Detroit’s Larkin).
Adam Henrique rips home the beautiful dish from Troy Terry to double the lead for Anaheim!#FlyTogether pic.twitter.com/C0wL8Z53VI
— Hockey Daily 365 (@HockeyDaily365) March 2, 2022
Admittedly, the 24-year-old Denver native has slowed down since his scorching start, netting just three goals in his last 10 games. Still, Terry drives the Ducks’ offense, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he puts the biscuit in the basket at least once Friday.
First off, Terry thrives as an underdog, scoring in 14 of 31 games when Anaheim is a pup. And he has 14 goals in 26 home contests. Finally, he gets a juicy matchup against a depleted Golden Knights squad that is just 4-5-1 in its last 10 games.
Playing its third game in four nights — a rarity in the NHL — Vegas will be without starting goaltender Robin Lehner. That leaves backup Laurent Brossoit (9-6-3, 2.69 GAA, .903 save percentage) to hold down the fort. And Brossoit won’t have a lot of familiar faces in front of him, as several key Knights players are expected to remain sidelined with injuries, including Brayden McNabb, Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, Alec Martinez, Nolan Patrick, and Mattias Janmark.
Terry has two goals in three games versus Vegas this season. Look for him to make it three of four tonight.
