Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite Friday NBA props from a slate of nine games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Feb. 25.
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Charlotte Hornets: PG LaMelo Ball
The Prop: 8.5 assists (vs. Toronto)
The Odds: Over +110/Under -145
This juice on this prop has skewed heavily toward the Under in the last few hours. Is that a wise move? Perhaps, considering Ball has eclipsed 8.5 assists just three times in his last eight games (14, 12 and 9 dimes). During this stretch, he’s averaged just 6.8 assists per game.
The numbers are even worse when focusing solely on Ball’s assist totals in home games: He’s beaten this prop number just three times in his last 13 contests in Charlotte (6.1 per game).
Over the course of the entire season, Ball has tallied nine or more assists just 20 times in 53 contests. To put that into perspective, he’s finished with six or fewer assists 20 times.
As for tonight’s opponent, Ball has averaged 7.5 assists in four career meetings with the Raptors. That includes nine and seven dimes in two meetings earlier this season. In fact, Toronto ranks 19th in the NBA in assists allowed to the opposition (25.0 per game). However, with this being the Raptors’ first game back following the All-Star break, they will have fresh legs on the court. In theory, that should lead to a stronger defensive effort.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Houston Rockets: C Christian Wood
The Prop: 10.5 rebounds (at Orlando)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes … and a healthy Christian Wood collecting 11 or more rebounds Friday night. And you can be sure we have numbers to justify that confidence.
Let’s start with this: Orlando’s offense owns bottom-five rankings in field-goal shooting (43.3%, 28th overall) and 3-point shooting (33.0%, 26th overall). In other words, the opportunities to secure rebounds will be there for Wood.
Secondly, the Magic have given up the fifth-most rebounds this season (47.0 per game). And in his only matchup against Orlando this season back on Dec. 3, Wood rolled for 20 points and 13 rebounds.
From Jan. 16-21, Wood posted 13-plus rebounds in five of six games. His numbers have dropped off since then, with just two double-digit rebounding games (11 each) in his last seven outings. However, the 6-foot-10 forward from UNLV has cleanly averaged 11.0 boards in his last nine home games, while eclipsing Thursday’s prop total total five times (11, 15, 15, 14, and 11).
Throw in the fact that fatigue shouldn’t be a factor — the Rockets haven’t taken the court in eight days — and the Over on this NBA prop looks too good to pass up.
Miami Heat: SF Jimmy Butler
The Prop: 32.5 points/rebounds/assists (at N.Y. Knicks)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
Back on Jan. 26, Jimmy Butler produced a very efficient line against the New York Knicks: 22 points, six rebounds, and five assists, barely clearing his Friday points/rebounds/assists number. And yet … it actually was Butler’s least productive game against the Knicks in the last four meetings.
Yep, the Miami Heat star has crossed tonight’s 32.5 threshold four straight times versus New York, going for 33, 44, 36 and 42. That averages out to 38.8 points/rebounds/assists per contest.
Butler also went into the All-Star break on a role, averaging 22.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists in his last 12 games (36.6 per outing). And that includes a 22-PRA clunker against the Nets on Feb. 12. During this span, Butler topped tonight’s 32.5 number nine times.
Take things back a bit further, and Butler has notched 30 or more points/rebounds/assists in 17 of his last 22 games.
When digesting the above information, the operative word should be bankability. That is, you’ll seldom look foolish betting on Butler, who serves as a model of consistency.
New Orleans Pelicans: PG/SG CJ McCollum
The Prop: 2.5 made 3-pointers (at Phoenix)
The Odds: Over -125/Under -105
In five games since joining the Pelicans after being traded from Portland, McCollum has averaged 28.4 points while shooting 42.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Both figures are substantially higher than McCollum’s numbers with the Trail Blazers (21.5 ppg/38.9% from 3-point range).
In those five contests with New Orleans, McCollum buried three or more triples three times (3 vs. San Antonio, 5 vs. Toronto, 7 vs. Dallas). And he just missed in his Pelicans debut, finishing with two.
Here’s another positive: McCollum connected on 17 of 41 treys in his last five encounters with the Suns (41.5%); during this span, he eclipsed this 3-pointer prop three times (6, 5, and 3).
Given McCollum’s featured role in the Pelicans’ offense, and his recent performances from long range, it’s easy to see why the juice on this prop leans heavily to the Over. However, it’s worth noting: The Suns have surrendered the fourth-fewest 3-pointers this season (11.4 per game).
Still, McCollum has drained three-plus 3-pointers in 25 of 41 games this season, including 11 of 19 on the road.
Dallas Mavericks: PG Luka Doncic
The Prop: 31.5 points (at Utah)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -120
Doncic was on a certifiable tear leading up to the All-Star break, averaging 35.4 points over the final 10 games. The breakdown: 49, 21, 45, 51, 33, 18, 33, 40, 34, and 30 points.
Put another way, during this period, Doncic absurdly accounted for 31.6 percent of the Mavericks’ entire scoring output, all while shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 43.3 percent from beyond the arc. Additionally, the Slovenian — who turns 23 on Monday — buried at least four triples seven times during those 10 games.
Throw in the fact that the Mavericks haven’t played in more than a week (meaning fresh legs for Doncic), and the Over seems like a cinch tonight in Utah … right?
Eh, maybe not.
The Jazz have the NBA’s 9th-stingiest scoring defense, yielding just 106.9 points per game. And Doncic has averaged only 27.8 points in his last four meetings with Utah, missing the 32-point threshold on each occasion.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more NBA betting trends for this Mavs-Jazz clash (and other games)? Check out our NBA Betting Preview for Friday.
