Sports betting is not roulette. Recent results actually can help predict future events. Which leads us right into our Friday NBA props.
Boston Celtics point guard Marcus Smart keeps dishing out assists, and in the process, hitting Overs for bettors. There will be a time to back off Smart’s assists prop when the number gets too high, but that time is not today.
Props.com breaks down Smart’s chances to once again pile up a bunch of assists among four Friday NBA props.
Odds from DraftKings as of 1:30 p.m. ET on April 1.
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Dallas Mavericks: PF Dorian Finney-Smith
The prop: 11.5 points (at Washington)
The odds: Over +100/Under -125
Finney-Smith posted his best scoring day of the season on Wednesday, pouring in 28 points in a 120-112 victory at Cleveland.
Needless to say, he’s unlikely to have something close to that performance Friday against the Wizards. Finney-Smith averages 10.9 points per game for the season, and he scored 11 or fewer points in seven of the 10 games before Wednesday’s outburst. In fact, he’s had back-to-back double-digit point games just once in his last 11 contests.
And in his only other meeting against the Wizards this season back in late November, Finney-Smith tallied just eight points at home. Lay a little juice and play this one Under 11.5 points.
Boston Celtics: PG Marcus Smart
The prop: 6.5 assists (vs. Indiana)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105
Sportsbooks have not caught up to Smart’s recent play. He is averaging only 5.8 assists per game for the season, but he has had seven or more dimes in six of the past seven games. (And the only game he fell short of seven assists came at Toronto on Monday, when Celtics stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were out, forcing Smart to shoulder more of the offensive load — which he did, pouring in 28 points.)
Also, Boston has lost two straight for the first time since Jan. 21 but now get to face the perfect streak-buster in the Pacers. Indiana has lost five straight and has allowed 125 points or more in each of the past four. That includes a pair of road losses by 30-plus points (133-103 at Memphis; 131-91 at Toronto).
This all indicates a big offensive night is coming for the Celtics, and Smart should be right in the middle of it, setting up teammates from start to finish. Bet him to go Over 6.5 assists yet again.
Sacramento Kings: PG Davion Mitchell
The prop: 22.5 points (at Houston)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
It’s March Madness again for Mitchell. The No. 9 overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft has played recently like he did for Baylor last season en route to the national championship.
Mitchell has scored 21 points or more in five straight games, raising his season average to 11.2 points per game. Sportsbooks have certainly caught up: His points prop for Friday’s game at Houston initially opened at 21.5 (with juice to the Over), then jumped to 22.5 (with juice to the Under). It then briefly shot up to 23.5 before sliding back to 22.5 (-110 to the Over). Despite these moves, there’s no reason to think the rookie will cool off — especially Friday against the inept Rockets, who surrendered 24 points to Mitchell in Wednesday’s game at Houston.
Yes, a rare scheduling quirk has these two NBA bottom-feeders squaring off twice in 48 hours. It’s unlikely that’s enough time for the Rockets — who give up an NBA-worst 117.7 points per game — to figure out how to slow down Mitchell.
Bet on the 23-year-old to fill up the stat sheet again.
San Antonio Spurs: SF Keldon Johnson
The prop: 2.5 made 3-pointers (vs. Portland)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
The Spurs are fighting to hold onto the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Conversely, the Trail Blazers have given up, losing nine of their past 10.
But that doesn’t mean Johnson is going to pour in a slew of 3-pointers Friday. In fact, the forward has made more than two 3-pointers just once in his past six games. What’s more, he’s done it in less than one-third of his games this season (23 of 70).
We scored a winner with Johnson going Over his assists prop on Wednesday, but he shouldn’t feel any pressure to launch shots from deep against hapless Portland in this one. In the Friday NBA props market, take Johnson Under 2.5 made triples.
Minnesota Timberwolves: PF Jarred Vanderbilt
The prop: 7.5 points (at Denver)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
This one is a simple handicap. Vanderbilt has scored 10 or more points in four straight games, and Friday’s contest between Minnesota and Denver has a high Over/Under total at 237.
That means points, and there’s no reason Vanderbilt won’t get his share in what should be a back-and-forth affair. The former Kentucky star might not match what he did in his last game against the Nuggets — 18 points, his second-highest output of the season — but he should have no trouble at least getting half that total.
Back Vanderbilt, who turns 23 on Sunday, to deliver us a gift by surpassing this depressed prop number.
