Thursday’s Best Bets didn’t pan out, going 0-for-2 on the night. Both selections were on the ice, so it’s fitting they caused a cold spell. We’ll turn our attention back to the NBA for Friday.
That’s good news, at least from the rearview mirror. Our NBA props are 27-12 in this Best Bets series, and we have another one locked and loaded.
Throw in an NBA total alongside BetPrep’s Prop of the Day, and we have more than enough ammunition to get back on track.
With that, let’s dive into Friday’s Best Bets.
Best Bets Track Record
Thursday: 0-2
Year-To-Date: 76-70-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 22-23-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 19-29
NBA Props: 27-12
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0
NBA Total: Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns
The bet: Mavericks-Suns Under 219
The odds: -110
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
For his portion of Friday’s Best Bets, Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast is running back to a situational spot he loves in the NBA. Yes, he’s taking the Mavericks to go Under the total while playing on their home court. To make it official, the play is Mavericks-Suns Under 219 for Game 3 of this series.
The biggest reason for Perrault’s confidence? Dallas is a remarkable 31-12-1 to the Under at home this season.
The Mavericks and Suns went Under 216.5 in their only other meeting in Dallas this season. The Suns won 109-101 on Jan. 20, and Perrault believes a similar score could pan out on Friday.
Dallas will do everything in its power to get back into this series. That includes controlling the tempo, taking the air out of the ball, and knocking Phoenix out of its rhythm. The Mavericks ranked dead last in possessions/game this season (98.3), and they failed to play that brand of basketball in the first two matchups of this series. Perrault believes Dallas can get back to its game plan at home and help keep the total low.
Head to FanDuel Sportsbook to bet on the Suns-Mavs total.
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NBA Prop: F Tobias Harris (Philadelphia 76ers)
The prop: Over 18.5 points (vs. Miami)
The odds: -135
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach via Friday NBA Props
Harris has a baseline 21.7 usage rate while scoring 17.2 points per game this season. In nine outings without Embiid in the lineup, those numbers to a 28.5 percent usage rate and 19 points per contest. Furthermore, Harris has been (predictably) seeing more minutes in the playoffs, consistently in the range of 37-44 minutes. That has led to 19 or more points in five of seven postseason games and 2-of-2 with Embiid out.
There’s reason to believe Harris can fly past this 18.5-point total for a third straight time. He averaged 14 field-goal attempts per game in the regular season, a tally that increased to 17 and 18, respectively, in the first two games of this series.
There’s a good chance Harris will lead Philadelphia in shot attempts and overall points in Game 3. Take the Over.
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BetPrep Prop of the Day: C Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns)
The bet: Over 17.5 points (at Dallas)
The odds: -139
Where to bet: PointsBet USA
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The rationale for BetPrep’s selection in today’s Best Bets:
- Ayton has scored 19-plus points in five of his last six playoff games.
- Ayton has scored 19-plus points in four of his last five road games.
Now let’s address the elephant in the room: Ayton scored just nine points in 19 minutes in Game 2. However, the lack of playing time is likely an aberration, as foul trouble and a blowout victory contributed to that result.
Ayton has an excellent chance to get back to his scoring ways in a likely competitive Game 3 matchup at Dallas. There’s reason to believe Ayton will be much closer to his 25-point performance in Game 1, as opposed to the nine-point disappointment in Game 2.
You can find Ayton Over 17.5 points (-139) at PointsBet USA
