You gotta hand it to the folks who set NFL lines at sportsbooks across the land: They’ve got some big onions. One week after the betting public robbed them blind on a Sunday that saw a slew of big (and very public) favorites cover the spread, bookmakers have doubled down by hanging some more big numbers in Week 7.
Six of this week’s 13 games feature point spreads of 6.5 points or more, including three massive double-digit favorites in the Buccaneers (-12 vs. Chicago), Rams (-16.5 vs. Detroit), and Cardinals (-18 vs. Houston). Sure, double-digit favorites are 6-2 ATS this season, but … how long do you think that trend holds up?
In other words, rather than risk your money by eating a bunch of chalk, you might want to consider shifting your Week 7 NFL action elsewhere — like, perhaps, propsville. Which brings us to this week’s edition of First and 10.
Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 23.
Joe Burrow Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (at Baltimore)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Bengals’ QB has shown no ill effects from the torn ACL that cut short his rookie season, as he’s completing 70.7% of his passes, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, and has 14 TDs. The downside: Burrow has thrown seven INTs, including at least one in five of seven games. And one in all three road games. And one in his lone game against the Ravens last season (in Baltimore).
The case for the Under: The Ravens picked off Chargers QB Justin Herbert once last week in a dominating defensive performance. Still, Baltimore has just four INTs on the season; only eight teams have fewer — and four of those teams are the Dolphins, Jaguars, Falcons, and Jets.
Davante Adams longest reception Over/Under 26.5 yards (vs. Washington)
The odds: Over -120 / Under -110 (at BetMGM and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target has gone over this number four times in six games, including hauling in long passes of 59 and 41 yards the past two weeks. The only two occasions when Adams failed to catch a pass of at least 27 yards, he got close (21 yards vs. the Steelers and 25 yards vs. the 49ers).
The case for the Under: As you might expect from a team that ranks dead last in passing defense (309.5 yards per game), Washington has gotten burned deep a ton this season — five straight weeks the Football Team has surrendered a long pass of at least 27 yards. However … Washington has done a solid job of not letting their opponents’ No. 1 wideout get behind them — for instance, the Bills’ Stefon Diggs (long catch 13 yards) and the Chiefs’ Tyreke Hill (long catch 19 yards) failed to get close to this number.
Derrick Henry Over/Under 25.5 rushing attempts (vs. Kansas City)
The odds: Over -118 / Under -112 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Your grumpy old “Get off my lawn!” neighbor will tell you they don’t make running backs like they used to. And your grumpy old neighbor would be 99 percent correct. The Titans’ beast of a tailback would be the exception. Since getting just 17 carries in a Week 1 blowout loss to the Cardinals, Henry has averaged 29 carries per game and amassed 725 rushing yards. Somewhere, Earl Campbell is smiling. As is Walter Payton. And Jim Brown. And your grumpy old neighbor.
The case for the Under: Not sure if you’ve heard, but the Chiefs have a decent offense, averaging nearly 31 points per game. If that offense gets rolling early and Tennessee has to play from behind, this could be another Week 1 vs. Arizona situation for Henry. Heck, just look at the Titans’ Monday night shootout against Buffalo: Henry rumbled for 143 yards … but toted the rock just 20 times. Also, K.C.’s opponents (all running backs) are averaging just 25.8 rushing attempts this season, and in his two previous games against the Chiefs (2018, 2019), Henry had 9 and 23 rushing attempts.
New England Patriots -10.5 (at New York Jets)
The odds: -10.5 (-185) / +10.5 (+150) (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: Aaron Rodgers made headlines for shouting “I still own you!” at Bears fans after rushing for a fourth-quarter touchdown in Chicago last week. No offense, Aaron, but nobody owns anybody like Bill Belichick owns the Jets. The Hoodie walked into MetLife Stadium with a rookie QB a month ago and walked out with a 25-6 victory — New England’s 11th in a row and 19th in the last 22 meetings with New York. Seven of the last eight wins? By 14 points or more. Makes the plus-money on this alternate spread (which is 3.5 points higher than the actual line) mighty tempting, doesn’t it?
The case for the Under: Well, in games not against the Jets this season, the Patriots are 1-4 — and that one win was by three points at Houston. Then again, the last five times the Jets visited Foxborough, New England prevailed by margins of 14, 16, 35, 20, and 38 points.
Jared Goff Over/Under 267.5 passing yards (at L.A. Rams)
The odds: Over -115 / Under +115 (at PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: Gee, you think Detroit’s QB might walk into Sofi Stadium on Sunday with something to prove? A couple of seasons after Goff led the Rams to the Super Bowl, L.A. head coach Sean McVey was so exasperated by the former No. 1 overall pick that he not only traded him … he traded him to Detroit. Savage! Note that the Rams are laying 16 points in this one — meaning Goff likely will get plenty of opportunities to pick up garbage-time yards after halftime.
The case for the Under: Gee, you think McVey might walk into Sofi Stadium on Sunday with something to prove? Seriously, nobody knows Goff’s (many) weaknesses more than McVey — including Goff himself. You can be sure McVey wants to show his owner, team, and fans that he made the right call in jettisoning his former QB. That could result in a very, very long afternoon for Goff, who has thrown for just 217, 203, and 202 yards in three of his last four games.
Prop Lean: Goff and three others are featured in Kyle Garlett’s Top NFL QB Props for Week 7.
Devonta Smith Over/Under 58.5 receiving yards (at Las Vegas)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Eagles’ rookie receiver has topped the total in two of three road games (71 and 77 yards). Now he faces a Raiders defense that has allowed opposing pass-catchers to rack up yardage totals of 105, 97, 96, 94, 86, 70, 70 and 69 this season. In fact, in games where the opposing QB is not named Justin Fields, Las Vegas has let at least one wideout/tight end get over this number.
The case for the Under: It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Smith, who has totaled 122, 77 and 71 yards in three of his games … and 31, 28 and 16 yards in the other three. Alas, when you’ve got an inaccurate QB tossing balls your way — Philly’s Jalen Hurts has only connected with Smith on just 27 of 44 targets (61.4%) — you tend to get inconsistent production.
Prop Lean: Our betting experts break down DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards prop and two others in this article.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5, first half (vs. Chicago)
The odds: -6.5 (-110) / +6.5 (-110) (at DraftKings)
The case for the favorite: The Buccaneers are 5-1 on the scoreboard but only 2-4 ATS this season. However, both spread covers came in the role of double-digit home favorite. And in both those games (vs. Atlanta and Miami), Tom Brady and Co. held a double-digit halftime advantage (21-10 and 24-10). Well, Tampa — which took a 21-7 lead into the locker room last week at Philadelphia — once again is laying double digits in this one, but only needs to be leading by a touchdown after 30 minutes to cash this prop.
The case for the underdog: The Bears’ three losses have all been by double digits (10, 20 and 10 points). But Chicago has been quite competitive in the first half, leading in all three of its wins and trailing by just 7, 6 and 3 points in its three losses. Note: If you like the Bears in this prop, you can get +7 at BetMGM, The SuperBook, and PointsBet.
Arizona Cardinals Over/Under 32.5 total points (vs. Houston)
The odds: Over -110 / Under -110 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Here’s some consistency for you: The undefeated — that’s right, undefeated — Cardinals have scored 38, 34, 31, 37 and 37 points in five of their six victories. More impressively: Arizona was a visitor in four of those contests. Now the Houston Texans, losers of five straight games, come to the desert with a defense that’s yielding 28.7 points per contest.
The case for the Under: The Cardinals won a 34-33 shootout over the Vikings in their first home game but laid an offensive egg in their other home contest — a 17-10 victory over the 49ers. Yeah, but come on — San Francisco’s defense is vastly superior to Houston’s! Is it? In three of their first four games, the Niners gave up 33, 30 and 28 points. Also, the Texans have allowed more than 31 points just once so far (40-0 loss at Buffalo).
Carson Wentz Over/Under 212.5 passing yards (at San Francisco)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: 853 passing yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and (astonishingly) no injuries — not even so much as a hangnail. It’s been a helluva three-week run for Indy’s QB. And to be fair, a pretty decent all-around season, as Wentz somehow has started every game (including one with two bad ankles); he has a 9-1 TD-to-INT ratio; and he’s thrown for at least 223 yards in five of six games.
The case for the Under: As we just noted, San Francisco’s defense hasn’t been nearly as good as advertised from a points-per-game perspective. Against the pass, though, the Niners are yielding just 216.6 ypg (eighth best in the league). More important than that: A downpour is expected for this Sunday night affair, which sent this number plummeting from 225.5 yards to 212.5. Heavy rain and Carson Wentz — not a good mix.
Prop Lean: BetPrep sharp Brad Feinberg takes a side on this NFL prop bet along with 10 others in his “Givin Props” plays of the week.
Alvin Kamara Over/Under 90.5 rushing yards (at Seattle)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -110 (at BetMGM and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: For years, Seattle’s defense was known as the Legion of Doom. Now it’s the Legion of Room, as gaping holes have allowed opposing running backs to average 140.8 yards per game against the Seahawks. Only the Texans and Chargers are worse at stopping the run.
The case for the Under: Saints coach Sean Payton took full advantage of Kamara’s talent (and youth) the last four years, putting the ball in his stud RB’s hands (rushing and receiving) more than 200 times each season (including more than 250 times each of the last three campaigns). All that usage might have taken a toll, as Kamara has topped 90 rushing yards just once in five games. He’s also averaging just 3.9 yards per carry after averaging 6.1, 4.6, 4.7, and 5.0 his first four seasons.
WEEK 6 RESULTS:
Aaron Jones Over/Under 14.5 rushing attempts (UNDER – 13 attempts)
Justin Fields Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (OVER – 1 INT)
Chiefs/Washington Over/Under 57.5 total points (UNDER – 44 points)
Justin Herbert longest completion Over/Under 38.5 yards (UNDER – 26 yards)
Austin Ekeler Over/Under 57.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 7 yards)
Robert Woods Over/Under 61.5 receiving yards (UNDER – 31 yards)
Derek Carr Over/Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (OVER – 2 TDs)
Dallas Cowboys Over/Under 27 total points (OVER – 35 points)
T.J. Watt Over/Under 2.5 solo tackles (OVER – 6 tackles)
