How many split screens of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will NBC air? What percentage of New England Patriots fans will give Brady a standing ovation every time he steps on the field? How many times will Belichick order a linebacker to take out Brady’s knees? Will the postgame Brady/Belichick encounter at midfield be genuine?
There are literally hundreds of NFL prop bets available for Sunday night’s much-hyped Brady vs. Belichick … er, Buccaneers vs. Patriots clash in New England. Unfortunately, none of the aforementioned props are among the offerings. So we had to settle for a few traditional ones in this week’s edition of First and 10, which examines 10 of the more intriguing prop bets on the Week 4 NFL betting board.
(For the record, regarding the above list of props, we’ll go with, in order: 55, 100 percent, 22, and hell no.)
Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET Friday
Josh Allen Over/Under 279.5 Passing Yards (vs. Texans)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, The SuperBook, DraftKings, and PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: The Bills QB shredded Washington for 358 yards in last week’s 43-32 rout and tossed for 270 yards in a home-opening loss to Pittsburgh. Now he faces a Houston secondary that got torched by Jags rookie Trevor Lawrence (332 yards in Week 1) and Sam Darnold (304 yards last week). So of course the Over is a lock here, right? Well …
The case for the Under: In their only road game (31-21 loss at Cleveland), the Texans allowed Baker Mayfield to complete 19 of 21 passes, but for only 213 yards. Also, Buffalo (-16.5) not only is the biggest favorite of the week but the entire NFL season thus far, which means odds are Allen will be doing a lot of handing off in the second half (if he’s on the field at all). And then there’s the possible influence of Mother Nature.
Our betting experts take a side on this prop in the Best NFL Prop Bets: QB Edition.
Allen Robinson Over/Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (vs. Lions)
The odds: Over -120 / Under -110 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Through three games, the Lions have allowed seven players to collect more than 51 receiving yards. Now they’re tasked with holding down a veteran wideout who snagged 200 catches for 2,397 yards (or an average of 75 yards per contest) in his last two seasons in Chicago.
The case for the Under: Alas, as Mr. Robinson (and every Bears fan) will tell you, this isn’t the last two seasons. With Andy Dalton and Justin Fields chucking footballs in his general direction, Robinson has gained just 35, 24, and 27 receiving yards in three games. As a result, we now know the answer to the question, “What wide receiver would ever beg for Mitch Trubisky to be his quarterback?” Allen Robinson, that’s who! (Note: Robinson’s yardage prop is higher at PointsBet USA, BetMGM, and The SuperBook.)
BetPrep analyst Brad Feinberg takes a stance on Robinson OVER this total in the Givin Props Podcast.
Nick Chubb Over/Under 77.5 Rushing Yards (at Vikings)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: Simple case to make here: The talented Browns RB has gotten over this number in all three games thus far (83, 95, and 84 yards). In fact, since returning from a four-game stint on injured reserve in the middle of last season, Chubb has rushed for at least 80 yards in nine of his last 11 games.
The case for the Under: Chubb’s lowest rushing total of the season came in Cleveland’s lone road game (83 yards at Kansas City). No big shock there, because the former Georgia tailback has been far more productive in his 24 career home games (87.2 rushing yards per game) than his 23 road contests (75.1 rushing ypg).
Our betting experts tackle this prop and four others in the Best RB Props article for Week 4.
Derrick Henry Over/Under 0.5 Rushing TDs (at Jets)
The odds: Over -188 / Under +140 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The two-time defending rushing champion and member of the 2,000-yard rushing club gets a chance to bulldoze the eminently bulldoze-able Jets, who already have given up five rushing touchdowns (tied for third-most in the NFL). I know what you’re thinking: Come on, you can’t POSSIBLY make a case for the Under here! Watch me.
The case for the under: Henry has three rushing touchdowns this season … all against the Seahawks in Week 2, which means he’s failed to hit paydirt in two-thirds of his team’s games. Then again, since Week 12 of the 2018 season (23 regular-season games), Henry has failed to get a rushing TD in consecutive games just twice (Weeks 1-2 and Weeks 8-9 last year).
This is a featured pick in the Top Three NFL Prop Bets article for Week 4.
Miles Sanders Over/Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Chiefs)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM, PointsBet USA, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Eagles RB is averaging a whopping 5.2 yards per carry. Problem is, he isn’t getting a whole lot of carries (just 30 so far, including two in Monday night’s loss to Dallas). Since the Chiefs rank 31st out of 32 teams in rush defense and yield 5.4 yards per tote, Sanders’ workload has to increase this week — unless Philly brought Rich Kotite back as head coach and didn’t tell anyone.
The case for the Under: Sanders has eclipsed 60 yards rushing just three times in his last eight games, and in one of those instances, he barely made it (64 yards). Also, while the Chiefs’ run D was horrific the first two weeks, it did limit the Chargers to just 77 rushing yards in last week’s overtime loss (holding primary RB Austin Ekeler to 55 yards).
This is yet another pick listed in Best NFL Prop Bets: RB Edition for Week 4.
Davante Adams Over/Under 7.5 Receptions (vs. Steelers)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -115 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: We’re starting to get the impression that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers loves his No. 1 wide receiver more than he loves breaking off wedding engagements. Rodgers and Adams have connected 25 times on 34 targets this season, with 20 of those receptions coming in the last two weeks (8 vs. Detroit, 12 at San Francisco).
The case for the Under: Since allowing Bills wideouts Stefon Diggs (9 receptions) and Cole Beasley (8) to catch everything but a cold in Week 1, the Steelers haven’t let an opponent haul in more than five receptions the past two weeks. Also, before exploding in the last two games, Adams had been held to seven catches or fewer in six of eight contests.
Tom Brady Over/Under 2.5 TD Passes (at Patriots)
The odds: Over +120 / Under -160 (at PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: From the second he was drafted with the 199th pick in 2000, Brady has had an “I’ll show them!” chip on his shoulder the size of a Cadillac. The dude holds grudges. So don’t believe the “This is just another game” nonsense — the Golden Boy wants to stick it to his old coach. Yeah, Brady only found the end zone once last week, but he threw 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, and 4 TDs in his previous eight games (playoffs and Super Bowl included).
The case for the Under: Brady may be without another ex-Patriot, TE Rob Gronkowski, who missed practice this week with a rib injury suffered in last week’s loss to the Rams. That’s a big deal because Gronk has snatched four of Brady’s 10 TDs this year. Brady also is facing a New England secondary that has surrendered only three TD passes all season. (Granted, to this point, that secondary has only faced quarterbacks named Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston.)
Tom Brady Over/Under 0.5 INTs (at Patriots)
The odds: Over -135 / Under +100 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Speaking of holding grudges, the only thing Belichick enjoys more than cheating is passive-aggressively exacting revenge on anyone he thinks did him wrong (insert name of former Patriots assistant-turned-head coach elsewhere). And rest assured, he’s not happy his old quarterback left him high and dry. So don’t kid yourself here, either: Belichick would love nothing more than to make Brady look like the 44-year-old he is, and as such might blitz him the entire night hoping to force some mistakes.
The case for the Under: The Patriots’ defense ranks third in the NFL with five INTs this season but, again … Tua, Wilson, Winston. Meanwhile, Brady has thrown just two picks in 141 pass attempts in 2021, and both came in Week 1 against Dallas. You know Brady would rather commit 15 intentional-grounding penalties than get picked off by his former team in Foxborough … as his former coach flashes a sinister grin on the sidelines.
Tampa Bay Bucs Over/Under 29.5 total points (at Patriots)
The odds: Over +110 / Under -140 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: We know Brady wants to light up the scoreboard in New England on Sunday night. We also know that prior to last week’s 34-24 loss in Los Angeles, the Buccaneers had tallied 30 points or more in nine consecutive regular-season and playoff games. Lastly, we know that the weather in New England is going to be absolutely ideal for another high-scoring prime-time game.
The case for the Under: Going back to December 2018 (and including the playoffs), the Patriots have allowed more than 28 points just five times in 42 games (and not once this season). Translation: New England’s defense rarely gets lit up. And considering Belichick would rather go on a two-week vacation with the media than get embarrassed in this one, it’s unlikely Tampa will get the chance to run up the score. Besides, even if things do get out of hand, there’s no question Belichick already has taught one of his ball boys how to kill power to the stadium.
Keenan Allen Longest Reception: Over/Under 23.5 yards (vs. Raiders)
The odds: Over -115 / Under -110 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: The Raiders’ pass defense hasn’t been too shabby, ranking in the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed while surrendering just two passing TDs. Of course, those stats don’t matter for this prop. This one does: Las Vegas (still sounds weird, by the way) has given up chunk plays of 25, 27, 28, 35, 41, and 52 yards. And at least one wideout has gone over this number against the Raiders in all three games.
The case for the Under: The Chargers’ most consistently reliable wide receiver has enjoyed more than a few big outings against the Raiders over the years. However, he doesn’t make a whole lot of big plays. Allen’s longest reception in 13 career contests against Oakland/Las Vegas is 30 yards, and that was in his rookie season. Since then, Allen has beaten this number only four times.
LAST WEEK’S NFL PROP BETS:
J. Fields O/U 53.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 12 rushing yards)
T.J. Hockenson O/U 5.5 receptions (UNDER – 2 receptions)
J. Herbert O/U 301.5 passing yards (UNDER – 281 passing yards)
M. Jones O/U 22.5 completions (OVER – 30 completions)
N. Harris O/U 64.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 40 rushing yards)
Z. Wilson O/U 212.5 passing yards (UNDER – 160 passing yards)
H. Ruggs O/U 39.5 receiving yards (OVER – 78 receiving yards)
C. Kupp longest reception O/U 25.5 yards (UNDER – 22 yards)
J. Garoppolo O/U 0.5 INTs (OVER – 1 INT)
Dallas Cowboys O/U 27.5 total points (OVER – 41 points)
