Tonight is the last game of Week 2 in the NFL preseason. So, let’s close the week with the Falcons vs. Jets predictions and picks.
Two second-year head coaches with seemingly different preseason approaches are butting heads. However, both teams are coming off narrow victories in preseason Week 1. The Jets and Falcons were able to eclipse 20 points in their first game action, scoring 24 points and 27 points, respectively. Which team will maintain momentum this week? Will the offenses remain on track?
Falcons vs. Jets Predictions
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Falcons vs. Jets Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -2.5 (-110) | -150 | O 38 (-110) |
| @ Jets | +2.5 (-110) | +130 | U 38 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2 a.m. on Aug. 22.
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Aug. 22
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Falcons vs. Jets Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Falcons vs. Jets as well as the NFL preseason in general:
- The Falcons won their first preseason game 27-23 at Detroit.
- The Jets won their first preseason game 24-21 at Philadephia.
- Atlanta HC Arthur Smith is 1-3 in the preseason, going winless as a rookie head coach last year before winning his first preseason contest this year.
- Jets HC Robert Saleh is 3-0-1 in the preseason.
- Underdogs are 53.5% against the spread in the NFL preseason in the previous ten years.
- As of midnight Monday, DraftKings reports that 50% of bets and 75% of the handle are on Under 38 total points.
- DraftKings also reports that 55% of the handle and 62% of the bets are on the Falcons.
- Only 41% of bets are on the Jets’ moneyline, but 51% of the handle is on the host’s moneyline.
The Jets May or May Not Play Their Starters
Every coach takes a different approach to the preseason. The sample is small for second-year head coach Robert Saleh, but he’s allowed his starters to play a bit while leaning heavily on his reserves. So, he hasn’t been a staunch believer in entirely sitting his starters. Sadly, it’s unclear how he’ll divvy up playing time.
The Jets May or may not play their starters Monday night against the Atlanta Falcons. Here are are five I will be keeping my eye on tomorrow https://t.co/LpKZjuShqr
— Antwan V. Staley (@antwanstaley) August 21, 2022
The mystery of the playing time distribution has another wrinkle, as the Falcons and Jets participated in joint practices the previous two days. Thus, Saleh might have seen most of what he wanted from integral starters in the joint practices. Saleh also commented, “we want to figure out who we got when you look at the 40 to 53 part of the roster.” So, it’s probable the players fighting for a roster spot will do the heavy lifting for Gang Green tonight.
Additionally, Saleh might exercise more caution at quarterback after Zach Wilson suffered a bone bruise and meniscus tear in Week 1 of the preseason. Losing Joe Flacco would be a nightmare, and Saleh doesn’t believe Flacco needs preseason snaps while also saying, “I think everyone could always use it as a reminder of how to get yourself prepared and making sure every game is just another game.” If Flacco plays, it seems unlikely he’ll receive more than a series or two.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Mike White had the most extensive action at quarterback for the Jets last week, leading the team with 20 dropbacks. White started three games for the Jets last year. So, he’s familiar with the team’s offense and a relatively good option for a preseason game.
Finally, Chris Streveler also had 11 dropbacks. He played in two games for the Cardinals last year, attempting nine passes in the regular season. Thus, New York’s signal-callers can run a functioning preseason offense.
More Seasoning For Desmond Ridder?
There aren’t many leaks on Atlanta’s plans for their starters tonight. Still, meaningful snaps for Atlanta’s core starters would be shocking. Unfortunately, Drake London suffered a minor injury last week, potentially reinforcing Smith’s commitment to keeping starters in bubble wrap in the preseason.
Last week, Marcus Mariota led a 12-play opening touchdown drive for the Falcons, dropping back five times, completing both of his passes for 36 yards, scampering for 23 yards, and capping the drive with a six-yard touchdown rush. Mariota’s action on the opening drive was more than 2021 starting quarterback Matt Ryan’s last year, and it was Mariota’s only playing time before giving way to rookie Desmond Ridder.
Ridder was the only other quarterback to drop back last week for Atlanta. The rookie’s performance was a mixed bag. He completed 10 of 22 passes for 103 yards and two touchdowns. However, PFF credited him with two turnover-worthy plays and as the victim of two drops, leaving him with a more palatable 57.1 Adjusted Completion Percentage.
But, of course, Ridder’s arm is only half of the equation for the athletic and mobile signal-caller. Ridder also rushed for 54 yards, ripping off three rushes for 10-plus yards. Ridder flashed enough last week to provide hope the Falcons won’t be stuck in the mud offensively against the Jets.
Falcons vs. Jets Predictions
The offenses were ahead of the defenses for the Jets and Falcons last week. Gang Green scored 24 but also yielded 21 points. Meanwhile, the Falcons hung 27 on the scoreboard while coughing up 23 points. The Jets scored only 12 points in Saleh’s first preseason game. Since then, they’ve scored 23, 31, and 24. They’ve also allowed an average of 18.25 points per game.
Comparatively, Atlanta’s 27 points last week were the highest preseason total in Smith’s young career as a head coach. The Falcons scored three, 17, and 10 points last year while allowing 23, 37, and 19. Therefore, in Smith’s four-game sample in the preseason as a head coach, the Falcons have scored 14.25 points per game and allowed 25.5 points per game.
The Jets appear to be mispriced as an underdog. Moreover, NFL reporter Connor Hughes didn’t mince his words when saying the Jets were the better team in two days of joint practices with the Falcons.
It wasn’t often, over the last few years, that you could say the #Jets were undeniably the best football team on the field. That was clearly the case these last two days.
No, the #Falcons aren’t good, but it’s a sign #NYJ are building & growing pic.twitter.com/nEkW7tIdi9
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) August 20, 2022
I initially went into this preview expecting to lean toward the over. Instead, I’ll gladly take the Jets moneyline for +130.
Pick: Jets moneyline | +130 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More NFL Preseason Week 2 Picks
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