Young quarterbacks are squaring off on Sunday Night Football. Fortunately, Tua Tagovailoa and Kenny Pickett will return from concussions. Despite Pickett’s tiny hands, the hands of the young quarterbacks will have a sizable hand in our favorite Dolphins vs. Steelers player props for this Week 7 primetime matchup.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Player Props: Week 7
Here are the three Dolphins vs. Steelers player props I like for Sunday Night Football.
Raheem Mostert Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
Mostert is the lead back for the Dolphins. He’s overtaken pricey free-agent addition Chase Edmonds on the top of Miami’s depth chart. Nevertheless, he’s rushed for more than 635 yards only two times. Moreover, he ran for 16, 51, and 11 yards in the three games Tua started and finished.
Those games were also noteworthy because Miami won. The Dolphins are 7.5-point favorites, and their passing attack shouldered the load in those games. In neutral game scripts in Week 1 through Week 3, the Dolphins attempted 52 passes and only 32 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Additionally, they kept their foot on the gas when leading. In the first three games, when leading by more than a field goal, the Dolphins attempted 23 passes and just 14 rushes by non-quarterbacks. So, Mostert’s usage was underwhelming with Tagovailoa.
Additionally, the Steelers are worse against the pass than the rush. According to Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh is 17th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 10th in rush defense DVOA. Thus, the Dolphins are incentivized to stick to their early-season pass-happy tendency. So, betting on Mostert having fewer than 63.5 rushing yards is attractive.
Where to bet: Raheem Mostert Under 63.5 Rushing Yards | +100 at Caesars Sportsbook
Tyreek Hill Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
If the Dolphins air it out with Tua, that’s outstanding for Hill’s receiving outlook. According to numberFire, Hill has 34 targets (29.6% Target Share), 25 receptions, 368 yards, and 372 Air Yards on Tua’s 115 pass attempts.
So, the speedy wideout has thrived with Tua. He also had 94 and 190 receiving yards in the first two games before an ugly 33-yard effort against Buffalo’s talented — albeit injured — defense. Hill has also been quarterback-proof, exploding for 160 and 177 yards in Week 4 and Week 6, reducing concerns about his potential to go over 78.5 receiving yards in the unfortunate event Tua has to exit early.
The matchup is at least rock-solid. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers have allowed 69.0 receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, and Hill is one of the game’s top No. 1 wideouts. Finally, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hill has the most significant matchup advantage in Week 7 on their wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart. Thus, I’m hopping on Hill’s receiving yardage prop of over 78.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Tyreek Hill Over 78.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Kenny Pickett Longest Completion Over 33.5 Yards (-113)
Pickett hasn’t been perfect in his rookie season. Still, he’s flashed his potential and been willing to cut it loose. He’s attempted 11 passes of at least 15 air yards, completing four for 105 yards.
In addition, Pickett has been in lockstep with fellow rookie George Pickens on deep balls, completing all three of his passes traveling at least 15 air yards directed to Pickens for 82 yards. Fortunately, Pickett has an excellent matchup for succeeding on long passes.
The Dolphins have allowed 20 completions of at least 15 air yards for 629 yards. Moreover, opposing quarterbacks have burned Miami for eight completions for at least 34 yards.
Surprisingly, it gets better. The 34-yard completions have been spread across five contests and five quarterbacks. Specifically, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Kirk Cousins had one pass for at least 34 yards, Lamar Jackson had two, and Joe Burrow had three. Thus, they’ve prevented a quarterback from completing a 34-yard pass or longer in just two games this season.
Finally, the Steelers are underdogs. Thus, they’ll likely be in a negative game script and need Pickett to air it out regularly. So, I’m betting on Pickett completing a pass for more than 33.5 yards.
Where to bet: Kenny Pickett Longest Completion Over 33.5 Yards | -113 at Caesars Sportsbook