The Cowboys are commanding favorites at home against the sub-.500 Colts. A probable good game script for the Cowboys is positive for two forthcoming player props. It’s not ideal for the other. However, a cooked trigger-man is more important for that particular prop. Let’s dive into the Cowboys vs. Colts player props below.
Cowboys vs. Colts Player Props: SNF Week 13
For a full list of Cowboys vs. Colts player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Matt Ryan Over 0.5 Interceptions (-155)
Matt Ryan is dust. The artist known as Matty Ice has been a trainwreck this year. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Ryan has the eighth-highest interception rate (2.6%). The veteran quarterback is also third in interceptions (10), despite getting benched for two games.
A look at the game log and Ryan’s numbers under pressure are also encouraging for him to toss a pick. Ryan has thrown an interception in six of 10 starts, including in five of six games the Colts didn’t win (he threw an interception in a tie in Week 1, hence my choice of wording).
Matty Ice has also melted under pressure and faces a defense that harassed opposing quarterbacks with regularity. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Ryan has the sixth-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (7.7) out of 35 quarterbacks who dropped back at least 50 times under pressure this season, putting 12 passes in harm’s way. Meanwhile, PFF has graded the Cowboys as the best defense at creating pressure, and Pro-Football-Reference says they have the highest pressure rate (30.2%). Thus, this is a nightmare matchup and scenario for Ryan, and I expect him to throw an interception.
Where to bet: Matt Ryan Over 0.5 Interceptions | -155 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Alec Pierce Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)
Matty Ice’s noodle arm is a lousy stylistic fit with field-stretching rookie Alec Pierce’s vertical usage. The duo had some rock-solid showings before Ryan was benched. However, since Ryan was reinserted as the team’s starting quarterback, Pierce had zero, three, and zero receptions in three games.
According to numberFire, the speedy rookie has a 14.5% Target Share, three receptions, 28 receiving yards, and 142 Air Yards in his past three games. So, he hasn’t been earning targets at a high rate. In addition, the Colts will also rely on the run as long as they can. In neutral game scripts since Jeff Saturday took the reigns as the interim head coach in Week 10, the Colts have attempted 76 passes and 60 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
The matchup is also dreadful for Pierce. First, the Cowboys have allowed only nine completions on 21 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards since Week 8. Second, according to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys are first in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Third, Dallas’s previously discussed elite pass rush will likely force Ryan to get rid of the ball quickly, making it nearly impossible for Pierce to get open downfield before the statuesque quarterback is under duress. So, I’ll take Pierce at +100 to go under 2.5 receptions.
Where to bet: Alec Pierce Under 2.5 Receptions | +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ezekiel Elliott Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
I couldn’t have imagined liking an over for Ezekiel Elliott this season when entering the 2022 campaign. However, here we are. First, the matchup is excellent. Since Saturday took over in Week 10, the Colts are 18th in rush defense DVOA. Teams have also run a balanced offense against the Colts in neutral game scripts during that three-game sample, attempting 66 passes and 54 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Second, Dallas’s splits are also encouraging. The Cowboys have attempted 99 passes and 83 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their last four games. They’ve also cranked up the run when leading. When leading by at least eight points in their past four games, they’ve attempted 34 passes and 42 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Zeke’s usage has also been pretty nifty. In the past two games since he returned from injury, Elliott has handled 19 rush attempts compared to 23 for Tony Pollard in neutral game scripts. However, Zeke had rushed 12 times compared to 10 for Pollard when Dallas led by at least eight. The most significant concern for Zeke’s over for rushing yards is getting an early hook. When the Cowboys eviscerated the Vikings, they used Malik Davis late in the contest.
Regardless, Zeke’s rushing totals have been stellar this year. The veteran running back averages 64.1 rushing yards per game and has a median outcome of 57 rushing yards. Elliott has also gone over 52.5 rushing yards five times in seven games he’s played when the Cowboys won this season. Finally, Zeke had a season-high 92 rushing yards last week. Therefore, he’s entering the game in good form, and I love his odds of rushing for more than 52.5 yards against the Colts.
Where to bet: Ezekiel Elliott Over 52.5 Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
