The Commanders are home favorites against the visiting Bears. Both teams lost last week, but all losses aren’t created equal. The Commanders took the Eagles to overtime, and the Bears squandered a 28-7 lead against the pitiful Broncos.
Washington should handle their business this week, and the game script is critical for the touted player props.
Commanders vs. Bears Player Props
Editor’s Note: The following Thursday Night Football player props are listed on DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook.
However, if you live in a state where these options aren’t available, you still could place Commanders vs. Bears player props at Underdog Fantasy.
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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Week 5
Here’s a trio of Commanders vs. Bears player props I like for Thursday’s primetime matchup:
Bears QB Justin Fields Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
The Bears want to run the ball when they can. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bears have passed on only 52% of their 114 plays in a neutral game script in 2023. However, they’ve passed on 58% of their 205 plays when tied or trailing.
Since the Bears are underdogs and Chicago’s defense is dreadful, Justin Fields will likely be forced to take to the air. In an 0-4 start, Fields has averaged 30.75 pass attempts per game, with a median of 32.0. The third-year quarterback has also exceeded 27.5 pass attempts twice. It should be more of the same this week, with Fields attempting more than 27.5 passes against the Commanders.
Where to bet: Justin Fields Over 27.5 Pass Attempts | -125 DraftKings Sportsbook
Commanders RB Antonio Gibson Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Antonio Gibson is Washington’s pass-catching back, and Brian Robinson is their hammer. So, a positive game script for the Commanders means nothing for GIbson’s rushing outlook. Moreover, he’s fumbled in three games this year. Therefore, Gibson can’t be trusted to salt away a game if Washington blows out Chicago, and Gibson could be entirely phased out with another fumble.
In Gibson’s role in this year’s offense, he’s averaged only 3.3 rush attempts per game and 13.5 rushing yards per game. The fourth-year pro has rushed for fewer than 20 yards in all four games and bested three attempts only once, setting season-highs with six and 19 rushing yards last week.
The matchup is the nail in the coffin. According to The 33rd Team, Chicago has allowed only 3.8 yards per carry to running backs this season. So, Gibson should extend his streak to five contests under 20 rushing yards this year against the Bears this week.
Where to bet: Antonio Gibson Under 22.5 Rushing Yards | -115 Caesars Sportsbook
Bears TE Cole Kmet Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Cole Kmet isn’t an uber-athletic burgeoning superstar at tight end. However, he’s an integral part of Chicago’s lackluster passing attack. Kmet is tied for the team lead in targets (24) and averages 4.5 receptions per game for 47.3 receiving yards per game.
Kmet has cleared 31.5 receiving yards three times this season, with a median of 41.0 receiving yards. Washington is an admittedly challenging matchup this week. They’ve held tight ends to only 20.75 receiving yards per game. Nevertheless, a negative game script for the Bears and Kmet’s standing in Chicago’s passing-game hierarchy is more important than the matchup, giving me confidence he’ll surpass 31.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Cole Kmet Over 31.5 Receiving Yards | -105 DraftKings Sportsbook