The Colts have been scrappy in two games under interim head coach Jeff Saturday, earning a win in Week 10 and losing a heartbreaker to the Eagles in Week 11. They’re favorites at home against the 3-7 Steelers. How should bettors approach this contest? The following analysis will help bettors make an informed pick, and we’ll offer our top Colts vs. Steelers predictions for this Monday Night Football contest.
Colts vs. Steelers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +2.5 (-110) | +115 | O 39 (-115) |
| @ Colts | -2.5 (-110) | -135 | U 39 (-105) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11 p.m. ET on Nov. 27. New to DraftKings? Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review to find out how to bet $5 to win $125.
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Nov. 28
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
- TV: ESPN
Colts vs. Steelers Trends
- The Colts have been 2.5-point favorites for most of the week, except for briefly moving to a 3.0-point favorite on Monday (11/21) afternoon.
- The Colts are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
- Indianapolis is 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games versus a team with a losing record.
- The Steelers are 14-29-2 against the spread in their last 45 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
- Pittsburgh is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 road games.
- The Steelers are 2-7-1 against the spread versus a team with a losing record.
- Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games against an AFC opponent.
The Colts Aren’t Too Shabby
Indianapolis is 4-6-1 and fired their head coach. Yet, they’re not too shabby. Jonathan Taylor was the NFL’s leading rusher last year and has shined since returning from an injury in Week 10. In his last two games, he’s rushed 44 times for 231 yards and two touchdowns.
In addition, Matt Ryan has played well indoors and since Saturday reinserted the veteran as the starting quarterback. Matty Ice has also done relatively well at home this year. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he’s 2-2 at home and has passed for 295.0 yards per game, completed 72.56% of his passes, tossed seven touchdowns, and thrown only one interception. So, Indy’s offense should be competent to better tonight.
However, the defense is the club’s strength. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Colts have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per play (5.0) and are 11th in scoring defense (20.0 points per game). In addition, per Football Outsiders, Indianapolis is 10th in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The Steelers Can’t Hang Their Hat on Anything
Rookie Kenny Pickett has played seven games this year but has only started and finished five. His first appearance was in relief of Mitchell Trubisky in Week 4, and he was knocked out of the contest in Week 6. So, let’s use his healthy five-game sample of starts. Pittsburgh scored 3, 10, 13, 20, and 30 points in those games.
Moreover, the Steelers were 24th in offense DVOA, 21st in rush DVOA, and 27th in pass DVOA in the five-game sample. The offense is lousy, no matter how you slice it.
On the other side of the ball, the defense is average. Pittsburgh is 14th in total defense DVOA, seventh in rush defense DVOA, and 18th in pass defense DVOA. The Steelers’ defense is also 25th in yards allowed per play (5.8) and 26th in scoring defense (24.4 points per game). As a result, Pittsburgh has been outscored by their opponents by 74 points, the worst point differential in the NFL entering this week.
Colts vs. Steelers Predictions
The Steelers are 1-4 in Pickett’s five completely healthy starts. They were outscored by 35, 6, 20, and 7 in the four losses. Meanwhile, the Colts beat the Raiders by five in Saturday’s first game as the coach and lost by only one to the Eagles in Week 11. The Colts had also managed a three-point win against the Chiefs in Indy when Ryan started in Week 3, and they beat the Jaguars by seven at home with Ryan starting in Week 6.
The Colts aren’t flawless. However, they’re better than the Steelers. Finally, they have a few decent wins on their resume in Ryan’s starts. As a result, I’ll lay the 2.5 points on the hosts.
Pick: Colts -2.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook