There is certainly no shortage of intriguing college football betting storylines heading into Week 9 of the 2021 campaign.
For starters, you’ve got two undefeated instate rivals squaring off, with combined 11-2 ATS records against FBS opponents — and the visitor is a solid favorite. You’ve also got the last team still in the hunt for the holy grail (a perfect FBS point-spread record) returning to action … and barely favored against an opponent that has lost its last two home games.
Also returning to the field are the four remaining squads that have yet to cash a ticket in an FBS-specific game (and two of the four are laying big points). And, of course, there’s the latest on Top 25 teams continuing to dominate at the betting window, and Over bettors continuing to dominate at the ATM.
All are viable jumping-off points for the Week 9 edition of the College Football Point Spread Report. Instead, let’s start where we left off last week: With a little-known team from a little-known conference once again putting big money in the pockets of bettors with big cajones.
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.
Flying High With The Warhawks
No way — they’re gonna do it again!
Those were the words that tumbled from our lips along about 7 p.m. ET last Saturday. That’s when the University of Louisiana-Monroe was putting the finishing touches on another chapter of a book that you’d swear was fiction: Four weeks after stunning Sun Belt Conference rival Troy 29-16 as a 23.5-point home underdog … and one week after a jaw-dropping 31-28 win over Liberty as a 33-point home underdog … the Warhawks took down Sun Belt foe South Alabama 41-31 as 13.5-point home underdogs.
That’s right: Three outright upsets, all as a massive underdog, in the span of a calendar month. And two of the three wins weren’t close.
With all due respect to Georgia’s Mark Richt, Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell, and every other guy with a whistle who’s in the running for 2021 Coach of the Year honors — as far as we’re concerned, y’all need to get in line behind Terry Bowden. The onetime Auburn coach (and son of late Florida State legend Bobby Bowden) has given UL-Monroe fans (and some savvy bettors) a lot to cheer about in his first season leading the Warhawks.
Now, you’d think three monumental upsets would earn Bowden and his team a little respect in the college football betting market. But you’d be wrong. This week, UL-Monroe heads to Appalachian State for a midafternoon Sun Belt tilt. The line: Appalachian State -27.
Somewhere, Rodney Dangerfield is rolling his bug eyes.
Yes, it’s true the Warhawks have not fared well on the road this year (45-10 loss at Kentucky; 59-6 loss at Coastal Carolina). It’s also true that you can get UL-Monroe at +1800 on the moneyline this week.
Best Of The Best, Worst Of The Worst
There’s no shame in the Warhawks failing to cover the spread against Kentucky. Nobody has (unless you count Tennessee-Chattanooga, which we don’t because Chattanooga is an FCS outfit).
The Wildcats took last week off after suffering their first defeat of the season, 30-13 at top-ranked Georgia on Oct. 16. Although Kentucky never threatened to spring the upset between The Hedges, it did cover the spread wire to wire as a 22.5-point road pup to improve to 6-0 ATS in FBS-specific games.
With Cincinnati falling to 5-1 ATS after failing to cover at Navy last week, Kentucky now stands alone as the only team with a perfect point-spread record. This week, the Wildcats find themselves as scant 1.5-point favorites at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs dropped their last two home games, to LSU (28-25 as a 1.5-point underdog) and Alabama (49-9 as a 17.5-point underdog).
Four teams that are the antithesis of Kentucky — Clemson, Indiana, Missouri, and Southern Miss — will try one more time to get off the ATS schneid this week. All four are 0-6 ATS versus FBS opponents, and yet a pair of Tigers squads are nonetheless lofty favorites in Week 9. Clemson is a 9.5-point home chalk against Florida State, while Missouri is laying 16/16.5 at Vanderbilt.
Meanwhile, Indiana (+5.5 at Maryland) and Southern Miss (+13.5 at Middle Tennessee State) are road underdogs. For what it’s worth, none of the not-so-fantastic-four’s opponents has a winning point-spread mark — in fact, Florida State, Vandy, Maryland, and MTSU are a combined 9-15-1 ATS in FBS-specific contests.
Still Standing On ‘Top’ Of The World
Now for the broken-record portion of our program: Top 25 teams delivered the goods once again in Week 8, with the 18 teams in action going 13-5 ATS.
This week’s collection of Top 25 squads carries a combined season mark of 123-60-2 ATS against FBS opponents (66.5% cover rate). That includes a 60-28-1 ATS record for top 10 teams — a sizzling 67.4% hit rate … which jumps to a molten-hot-lava 73.7% if you strip away No. 4 Oklahoma (2-5 ATS) and No. 7 Oregon (2-4 ATS).
In fact, Oklahoma and Oregon are joined by No. 25 BYU (3-5 ATS, including three straight non-covers) as the only schools in the current Top 25 without a winning point-spread record. This week’s other 22 ranked teams are 117-48-2 ATS (70.1%) in FBS-specific action.
Two squads that fall in line right behind Kentucky at the top of the ATS charts will be butting facemasks Saturday, when Michigan (6-1 ATS in FBS games) visits Michigan State (5-1 ATS). The Wolverines, whose two road wins were by point margins of 3 (Nebraska) and 21 (Wisconsin), are a consensus 4-point favorite against the Spartans, who have allowed more than 21 points just once all season (48-31 win over Western Kentucky).
A handful of other red-hot ATS teams to keep an eye on this week:
5-0 ATS runs: Syracuse (-3 vs. Boston College), Oklahoma State (-30.5 vs. Kansas), and Washington State (+15 at Arizona State).
4-0 ATS runs: Virginia (+2.5 at BYU) and UTEP (+11 at Florida Atlantic).
Is This ‘Over’ Yet?
To college football Over bettors — what can we say? Send us your address, and we’ll send you a bottle of much-needed hooch (cheap hooch, of course).
Since Week 6 — the only week this season in which the Over beat the Under — 63 of 104 FBS-specific games have stayed low (60.6%). For the season, the Under is connecting at a 56.0% rate, going 235-184-1.
The good news for those bettors who like to “fly high”: Tulsa is back in action after a bye. The Golden Hurricane are the only team that has topped the total in each of its FBS games (6-0).
This week, Tulsa hosts Navy, and the consensus total is a mere 47 points. Combined point totals of the Midshipmen’s last five games: 48, 64, 55, 52 and 47.
(Keep that shot glass within reach, Over bettors!)
College Football Over/Under Stats
Last week: 22-31
Season: 184-235-1