We here at Props.com are a positive bunch. Kick a team when it’s down? Take cheap shots? Mock the eminently mockable? That’s not our style — well, it’s usually not our style.
Sometimes the eminently mockable leave us no choice. This is one such time. So with all due respect to fans of seven particular college football programs (and particularly, poor, poor Kansas fans), sorry but … you’re about to get disrespected in this week’s College Football Point Spread Report.
Let’s just rip off the Band-Aid straightaway, then pivot to the positive, and close with the feel-good story of the month (if not the entire season) in college football betting trends.
As always, the College Football Point Spread Report focuses solely on FBS vs. FBS matchups — in other words, Oklahoma isn’t credited with an ATS win for its 76-0 rout of Western Carolina in Week 2. Nor is Washington dinged with an ATS loss for its inexplicable 13-7 home defeat to Montana the same day.
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.
The Not-So-Magnificent Seven
Three things you should never see in mid-October: An already empty bag of Halloween candy, a Christmas tree lot, and a college football team that still hasn’t covered a point spread. Hopefully, you haven’t encountered the first two — or been financially affected by the third.
Entering the season’s eighth week, seven squads have yet to cash a ticket in an FBS-specific game. Last week, four teams took the field with 0-5 ATS records, yet only one got off the schneid: San Jose State covered as a 9.5-point home underdog in a 19-13 overtime loss to San Diego State.
As for the other three? Missouri, New Mexico, and Southern Miss didn’t just fail to cash again last Saturday — despite each being a heavy underdog — they got absolutely annihilated by the combined tally of 105-21.
While that trio stands alone at 0-6 ATS in FBS-specific action, four other teams enter this week at 0-5 ATS: Central Florida, Clemson, Indiana, and Kansas. Of that group, the Jayhawks need to be singled out for this reason: They went 1-7-1 ATS during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. That means Kansas is 1-12-1 ATS over its past 14 FBS contests.
Now you know why the Jayhawks are the biggest underdog on the board this week, catching between 38-39 points at No. 3 Oklahoma. Whether or not Kansas can stay within six touchdowns of the Sooners, we know at least two teams will still be searching for their first spread-cover come Halloween weekend: Missouri and Southern Miss, who have byes this week.
As for the others, New Mexico and Indiana are catching 20 points at Wyoming and Ohio State, respectively; Central Florida is actually a 1.5-point home favorite vs. Memphis; and Clemson is a 3.5-point ‘dog at Pitt.
And Then There Were Two …
It’s not often that an undefeated team suffers a 17-point defeat and still escapes with its unblemished point-spread record intact. Yet that was the case last week for Kentucky, which traveled to top-ranked Georgia as a 22.5-point pup and hung tough against the fierce Bulldogs, eventually falling 30-13.
The Wildcats remain the only FBS outfit that is 6-0 ATS against fellow major-college opponents. And with Kentucky on bye this week, one team gets an opportunity to match that 6-0 ATS record: No. 2 Cincinnati, which trashed UCF 56-21 as a 21.5-point favorite last week, is the only other school that’s unbeaten against the number. The Bearcats are laying 27.5 points at Navy, which had cashed three straight games as a double-digit underdog before last week’s 35-17 loss at Memphis as an 11-point pup.
Lined up behind Kentucky and Cincinnati on the ATS leaderboard are seven teams at 5-1 ATS in FBS-specific matchups: Air Force, Bowling Green, Michigan, Michigan State, Syracuse, UTEP, and Texas-San Antonio.
Of that crew, Syracuse, UTEP, and Air Force are all riding four-game ATS winning streaks, as are Oklahoma State and Colorado State. Interestingly, Syracuse (+3.5 at Virginia Tech) and Oklahoma State (+7) are underdogs this week.
Top Of Their Games
Top 25 teams turned in yet another profitable performance, as the 17 teams that took the field in Week 7 went 10-7 ATS. Over the past two weeks, the Top 25 is 24-15 ATS (61.5% cover rate), with the Top 10 going 11-5 ATS (68.8%).
The teams that comprise this week’s Top 25 sport a combined 93-47-2 ATS record on the season (65.5%), with the Top 10 checking in at 38-18-1 ATS (66.7%).
As has been the case all season, the SEC (six teams) and Big Ten (six teams) dominate this week’s rankings. Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Auburn (SEC), and Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue (Big Ten) are a combined 50-22-1 ATS (68.5%) in FBS clashes.
Incredibly, none of those dozen squads has a losing point-spread record (Auburn and Purdue are 3-3 ATS).
How Low Can You Go?
It took Over bettors six weeks to turn an ever-so-slim profit (there were 27 Overs and 24 Unders in Week 6). And it took all of seven days for the totals pendulum to swing right back, as the Under went 32-19 in Week 7. For the season, the Under is cashing at a 55.6 percent clip (204-162-1).
Also, we’re down to two schools with perfect totals record — one on each side of the fence: Tulsa is 6-0 to the Over in FBS contests, and Purdue is 6-0 to the Under. The Golden Hurricane are idle this week, while the Boilermakers host an offensively challenged Wisconsin squad that’s 4-2 to the Under. And what do you know: Purdue-Wisconsin is tied (with Air Force-San Diego State) for the lowest total of the week at 39.5/40.
As for that feel-good story we promised? A week ago, Louisiana-Monroe — a Sun Belt Conference squad that had dropped its previous two games to Georgia State and Coastal Carolina by a combined score of 114-37 — scored a 31-28 upset as a 33-point home underdog against Liberty last week. It was the second time this season that the Warhawks pulled off an outright shocker as hefty home pups, as they toppled Troy 29-16 catching 23.5 points on Sept. 25.
This week, UL-Monroe once again is a double-digit home underdog, getting 13.5 points against South Alabama. The Jaguars easily covered last week in a 41-14 win over Georgia Southern. However, they haven’t cashed in consecutive games this season. They’re also 0-2 ATS as a road favorite.
College Football Over/Under Results
Week 0/1: 15-34
Week 2: 22-23
Week 3: 26-26
Week 4: 26-32
Week 5: 27-33-1
Week 6: 27-24
Week 7: 19-32
SEASON: 162-204-1 (55.6%)
