There are many ways to try to grind out a profit betting college football games from week to week. You can do hours of old-school research. You can run computer models until your electricity short-circuits. You can subscribe to countless services and seek the opinions of industry experts in hopes of distilling a consensus.
Or you can save a boatload of time by taking this simple approach: Grab your smartphone, Google “AP Top 25,” open your betting app of choice, fire away, and watch the money roll in.
We explain more in this week’s College Football Point Spread Report, which begins with the insane rate at which ranked teams (especially those at the top) are covering in FBS-specific games. We also cover the cash machines that continue to be the Big Ten and SEC; reveal the four teams that keep paying off for bettors (and the 14 that keep paying off for bankruptcy attorneys), and examine why this season continues to be “under” whelming.
Top 25 ATS Report
| Ranking | ATS | Percentage |
| Top 25 | 70-37-2 | 64.2% |
| Top 10 | 28-15-1 | 63.6% |
| Top 5 | 18-3 | 85.7% |
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines in FBS vs. FBS games only.
Follow The (Easy) Money
You know how you’ve been told over the years, “If something seems too good to be true, be careful — because it probably is”? Well, here’s one case where it isn’t: This year’s marquee college football programs are annihilating bookmakers as much as they are their opponents.
A look at this week’s Associated Press Top 25 poll reveals that ranked squads are 111-13 straight-up (all games) and 70-37-2 ATS (in FBS-specific games). Narrowing the focus a bit, top-10 teams are 47-2 SU (again, all games) and 28-15-1 ATS (FBS-specific games). That’s a solid 63.6% spread-cover rate — a rate that jumps all the way to 75% (27-8-1) if you remove the combined 1-7 ATS mark of No. 6 Oklahoma (0-4) and No. 8 Oregon (1-3).
Astonishing, right? Pssht, that’s nothing. Check this out: The nation’s top five teams (in order, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Penn State, and Cincinnati) are 24-0 on the scoreboard … and 18-3 against the number. That’s a mind-blowing (and bankroll-ballooning) 85.7% hit rate!
Perhaps even more amazing than that stat is the fact oddsmakers know the betting public consistently hammers highly ranked teams. As such, point spreads involving the Alabamas and Georgias of the football world are naturally inflated. Yet despite that inflation … 18-3 ATS.
Now, there’s a better chance that Jeff Bezos will rewrite his will to include you as an heir before that trend holds up for another two weeks, let alone the rest of the season. Still, anyone who has been riding the big horses to this point can easily afford a stumble or three — or, better yet, hop-off those horses before they gallop into regression land.
In Leagues Of Their Own
In keeping with the theme, here’s another eye-popping stat: 39-14-1. That’s the combined point-spread mark of the 12 ranked teams from the SEC and Big Ten (just your run-of-the-mill 72.2% success rate).
From the SEC, Alabama, Georgia, No. 13 Arkansas, No. 16 Kentucky, No. 17 Ole Miss, No. 18 Auburn, and No. 20 Florida are 22-9 ATS combined. Meanwhile, Big Ten reps Iowa, Penn State, No. 7 Ohio State, No. 9 Michigan, and No. 11 Michigan State are 17-5-1 ATS.
Schools from each of those leagues — Penn State and Kentucky — join Bowling Green from the Mid-American Conference as the only teams (out of 130) that are 4-0 ATS in FBS-specific contests. The only other squad to ring the cash register each time out: Cincinnati, which is 3-0 ATS.
This week, Penn State and Iowa (4-1 ATS) duke it out in Iowa City in what amounts to a de-facto College Football Playoff eliminator, with the Nittany Lions a 2- to 2.5-point underdog. Meanwhile, Kentucky (-3) hosts LSU (2-2 ATS); Bowling Green (-14.5) welcomes Akron (0-4 ATS); and Cincinnati (-29) entertains Temple (2-2 ATS).
While we’re down to four ATS unbeatens, 14 teams sit at the opposite end of the moneymaking road. Joining Akron and Oklahoma at 0-4 ATS are Clemson, Indiana, Kansas, Kent State, Miami, Fla., Missouri, New Mexico, San Jose State, and Southern Miss. Utah, Central Florida, and TCU check-in at 0-3 ATS.
Of that group, four teams will find themselves on this ignominious list next week, as Clemson, Indiana, Kansas, and Miami (Fla.) have byes this week.
This Is Totally Unexpected
If you’ve been holding your breath waiting for a week when the Over will cash more often than the Under, well … sadly, you’re no longer with us. Last week saw the Under win out again, going 33-27-1.
Although the totals splits have been tight the past four weeks — including a dead-even 26-26 mark in Week 3 — the Under is still cashing at a healthy 55.9% clip (116 overs, 148 unders, 1 push).
Three schools have hurdled the total in every game (Tulsa and Pittsburgh are 4-0; Western Kentucky is 3-0). On the low side, Purdue is the only team that’s 5-for-5 to the Under; Bowling Green, Kent State, Miami (Fla.), Penn State, Troy, and Washington State are 4-0 to the Under; and Colorado State, North Texas, and Virginia Tech have stayed under in each of their three games.
College Football Over/Under Results:
SEASON: 116-148-1 (55.9%)
Week 5: 27-33-1
Week 4: 26-32
Week 3: 26-26
Week 2: 22-32
Week 0/1: 15-34
