The initial rankings for the 2021 College Football Playoff have been released and as usual, those rankings don’t exactly align with the perceptions of oddsmakers, let alone those who vote for the Associated Press Top 25 poll.
Of course, we’ve still got more than a month to go before “Selection Sunday” on Dec. 5, so much can (and will) change among the top four. Well, maybe three of the four, as the school sitting atop both the CFP rankings and CFP odds board appears to be a lock for an invitation to either the Cotton Bowl or Orange Bowl on Dec. 31.
Let’s break down the latest College Football Playoff odds heading into Week 11 of the season.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 9 a.m. ET Nov. 3.
Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 8-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 1st
AP Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -1800/No +950
You can bet the proverbial farm that Georgia, which already has clinched the SEC East crown, will be undefeated heading into the SEC title game on Dec. 4 in Atlanta.
Why such confidence? Well, first off, the Bulldogs boast the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (6.62 points per game); they rank second overall in total defense (226.6 yards per contest); and they’ve defeated their first six SEC East opponents by an average of 32.7 points.
Most importantly, their remaining four opponents — vs. Missouri (4-4, 1-3 SEC), at Tennessee (4-4, 2-3 SEC), vs. FCS foe Charleston Southern, and at Georgia Tech (3-5, 2-4 ACC) — don’t have the talent to compete with Georgia. Which is why Georgia will be a double-digit favorite against all four.
Barring a colossal upset, the Bulldogs will be in the CFP semifinals, no matter what happens in the SEC championship game.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 7-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 2nd
AP Ranking: 3rd (last week: 3rd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -160/No +140
Alabama, which boasts the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense (45.9 points per game), is the second best team in the nation in the eyes of the selection committee this week. But that doesn’t mean the Crimson Tide are a cinch to make the four-team field, a fact that’s evident in their odds.
Unlike Georgia, Alabama already has a loss and simply cannot afford another one — even if it’s to the Bulldogs in the SEC title game. That’s because in the playoff’s brief history (since 2014), a two-loss team has never reached the four-team field.
As such, Nick Saban’s squad needs to focus on its only air-tight pathway to playoff glory: Beat LSU, New Mexico State, and Arkansas as heavy home favorites; crush Auburn’s dreams of an SEC East title in the Iron Bowl (Nov. 27); and then upend top-ranked Georgia for the SEC championship.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 7-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 5th
AP Ranking: 6th (last week: 5th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -165/No +145
DraftKings oddsmakers and the CFP committee are aligned in thinking Ohio State controls its destiny for the College Football Playoff, despite being outside the top four for both the AP poll and the CFP’s initial rankings.
The Buckeyes, who have averaged 52.8 points in their last five games, have a clear road to either the Cotton or Orange bowl. Sweep the remaining regular-season outings against Nebraska (road), Purdue (home), No. 5 Michigan State (home), and No. 9 Michigan (road), and then take care of business in the Big Ten title game (Dec. 4 in Indianapolis).
In this plausible scenario, Ohio State likely wouldn’t require any outside help to make the four-team field, given the Big Ten’s overall strength and the Buckeyes’ formidable strength-of-schedule rating.
Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 9-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 8th
AP Ranking: 4th (last week: 4th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -150/No +130
At DraftKings, Oklahoma has the fourth-highest playoff odds of any national-title contender, despite being slotted eighth in the first CFP rankings.
Why are oddsmakers so confident in the Sooners, aside from something we’ve been saying all season — that no undefeated Power 5 conference champion has ever been denied a spot in the College Football Playoff? It apparently comes down to Oklahoma’s back-loaded schedule, which includes No. 14 Baylor (Nov. 13), Iowa State, and No. 11 Oklahoma State (Nov. 27) in the coming weeks.
If the Sooners take care of business in the above matchups — and they’ll be favored in each contest — then capture the Big 12 title game Dec. 4, oddsmakers are confident that would be enough to push OU into the top four. So even though the Sooners are two spots below fellow undefeated and No. 6 Cincinnati in this week’s CFP ranking, oddsmakers clearly favor an unbeaten Big 12 champ over an unbeaten American Athletic Conference champ.
You can be sure the CFP selection committee would, as well.
The Next Wave
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record: 8-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 6th
AP Ranking: 2nd (last week: 2nd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +175/No -210
The most absurd occurrence from ESPN’s CFP rankings release Tuesday show? Committee chairman Gary Barta minimizing Cincinnati’s road wins over Notre Dame (No. 10 CFP ranking) and Indiana, and instead focusing on the Bearcats’ sluggish victory over 2-6 Navy (Oct. 30). Based on that TV interview, one could speculate Cincinnati’s proverbial glass ceiling for the playoff extends no higher than fifth overall — assuming the respective SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12 champions win out going forward.
Oregon Ducks
Record: 7-1
College Football Playoff Ranking: 4th
AP Ranking: 7th (last week: 7th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +330/No -425
Oregon’s No. 4 CFP ranking factors in the Ducks’ résumé-topping road win over Ohio State back in Week 2, along with their deflating defeat to Stanford three weeks later. However, it doesn’t yet account for the Oregon potentially capturing the Pac-12 title in December — a feat that would seemingly be enough to vault the Ducks into the four-team playoff. Should both Ohio State and Oregon finish with one loss, it will be interesting to hear the committee’s rationale for (presumably) taking the Buckeyes over the Ducks.
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 8-0
College Football Playoff Ranking: 3rd
AP Ranking: 5th (last week: 8th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +800/No -1400
The Spartans deserve major, uh, props for producing the most thrilling comeback victory of the college season, a 37-33 win over Michigan in which Spartans tailback and Heisman Trophy contender Kenneth Walker ran for 197 yards and five TDs. However, in the minds of oddsmakers, Michigan State (5-0 in Big Ten play) still lags behind Ohio State and even Michigan in terms of representing the conference in the four-team playoff.