The Chiefs host the Titans as significant favorites on Sunday Night Football. The hosts should be refreshed and ready to roll after their Week 8 bye. Conversely, the Titans will start a hobbled Ryan Tannehill or raw rookie QB Malik Willis. It’s a recipe for Kansas City to please the home crowd, but will they cover the large spread, or should bettors consider making a different wager? Let’s break down our Chiefs vs. Titans predictions and best bets below.
Chiefs vs. Titans Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | +12.5 (-110) | +420 | O 45.5 (-110) |
| @ Chiefs | -12.5 (-110) | -560 | U 45.5 (-110) |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. Don’t have an account? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to grab up to a $1,000 risk-free bet.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
- TV: NBC
Chiefs vs. Titans Trends
- The Chiefs opened as 11.5-point favorites on Sunday before the line dipped to 10.5 points Monday morning, surged to 12.5 points on Monday afternoon, and has moved between 11.5 points and 12.5 points since Thursday night.
- The Titans are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games after amassing less than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
- Tennessee is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall.
- Tennessee is 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 road games against an opponent with a winning home record.
- The Chiefs are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game.
- Kansas City is 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.
Kansas City’s Pass-Happy Offense is Elite
The Chiefs are an offensive juggernaut. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Kansas City leads the league in per-game scoring (31.9 points). Second, according to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are first in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Kansas City’s offense runs through Patrick Mahomes and relies heavily on his golden arm. Mahomes has attempted 173 passes, and non-quarterbacks have attempted 84 rushes in neutral game scripts this year for the Chiefs. They’ve also kept their foot on the accelerator. The Chiefs have attempted 53 passes, and the non-quarterbacks have rushed 47 rushes when they’ve led by at least eight points this season.
Meanwhile, the Titans have faced 127 passes and only 67 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. The pass-happy Bills are the only team that’s led by at least eight points against the Titans this year, and they attempted 17 passes and 12 rushes by non-quarterbacks when leading by that margin. So, the Chiefs are unlikely to play out of their comfort zone.
Tennessee’s Offense is Lackluster
The Titans are scrappy, but their offense is lousy. Tennessee’s season-high for points is only 24, a total they hit in Week 3 and Week 4. They’ve scored just 21, 19, and 17 in their previous three games.
The Titans are only 24th in scoring offense (18.9 points per game) and 29th in yards per play (5.0). They’re also an underwhelming 22nd in total offense DVOA. So, the Titans are unlikely to keep pace in a shootout.
Yet, it gets worse. As I noted in the intro, Tannehill is a game-time decision.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) limited in Friday's practice, will be game-time decision vs. Chiefshttps://t.co/jo25TPM7B6 pic.twitter.com/B6Hxwp5bKJ
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 4, 2022
A gimpy Tannehill is unlikely to provide Tennessee’s offense a spark. However, the prospect of Willis having to throw to keep Tennessee in this contest should terrify Mike Vrabel and Titans fans.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades Willis 47th out of 47 quarterbacks in passing among those who’ve dropped back at least 10 times. The rookie has completed just seven of 14 attempts for 61 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. Thus, a Willis-led offense is unlikely to match Kansas City’s haymakers.
Chiefs vs. Titans Predictions
The Chiefs are an excellent bet to win. Andy Reid and Mahomes have partnered to win each of their regular-season games following Kansas City’s bye since 2018. They’ve won by an average of 13.75 points and have a 10.0-point median margin of victory.
The Chiefs have won five games this year, and their margins of victory are 1, 3, 10, 19, and 23, resulting in an average margin of 11.2 points and a median of 10.
Conversely, the Titans have lost to the only two teams they’ve played with a winning record, getting beaten 21-20 by the Giants in Week 1 and boat raced by the Bills 41-7 in Week 2. Kansas City is much closer to the Bills than the Giants regarding the quality of their offense.
So, I expect the Chiefs to handle their business and win convincingly. However, instead of taking the standard 12.5-point spread, I prefer their alternate spread of 9.5 points. The line is a palatable -150 to knock the spread down to 9.5 points, which falls below the average and median margins of victory for the Chiefs in their last four games after the bye and their five wins this season.
Pick: Chiefs -9.5 | -150 at FanDuel Sportsbook