The Chiefs are projected to destroy the Titans. They’re 12.5-point favorites at home after a bye week. Still, bettors shouldn’t expect Kansas City to turn into a run-first team, even if they live up to the betting line’s expectation of blowing out the Titans. So, how should we attack these Chiefs vs. Titans player props? Let’s dive in.
Chiefs vs. Titans Player Props: Week 9
Here are the three Chiefs vs. Titans player props I like for Sunday Night Football.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Chiefs have an implied total of 29.0 points at some sportsbooks. Thus, Kansas City is expected to light up the scoreboard. So, Patrick Mahomes is likely to put on a show.
First, the Chiefs have attempted 32 passes and produced 16 passing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line versus only 16 rushes, resulting in five touchdowns in 2022.
Second, quarterbacks opposing the Titans have attempted 21 passes inside the 10-yard line and produced seven touchdowns in that area of the field this year. Additionally, teams have attempted only eight rushes and scored one rushing touchdown inside the 10-yard line against the Titans in 2022.
Mahomes also did an outstanding job of using his rocket arm to get the Chiefs into the end zone. He’s passed 20 touchdowns in seven games. So, Mahomes averages 2.86 passing touchdowns per game, with a median of three.
He has also passed for more than 2.5 touchdowns four times. It’s also encouraging that Mahomes has cleared the 2.5-passing touchdown bar four times in five wins, including doing so in both of Kansas City’s blowout victories. Therefore, I’m all over this prop.
Where to bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns | +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 Pass Attempts
While I love the first prop, I like this one even more. Mahomes has gone over 36.5 pass attempts four times in seven games this season. He averages 37.6 pass attempts per game, with a median of 37.
In addition, teams take to the air against the Titans, averaging 35.9 pass attempts with a median outcome of 38. But, of course, it makes sense for Tennessee’s opponents to throw against them. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans are first in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Yet, they’re only midpack against the pass, ranking 15th in pass defense DVOA.
Both teams’ tendencies are also a plus for Mahomes to exceed 36.5 pass attempts. In neutral game scripts this year, Mahomes has aired it out 173 times, and the Chiefs have rushed only 84 times with non-quarterbacks.
Fortunately, they don’t turn into a run-first team when leading by a wide margin. Instead, they’ve attempted 53 passes and only 47 rushes by non-quarterbacks when they’ve led by at least eight points in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Titans are attacked through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have chucked it 127 times in neutral game scripts this year, and opposing non-quarterbacks have attempted just 67 runs. There is only one game with an example of the Titans getting blown out. However, the pass-happy Bills attempted 17 passes and 12 rushes by non-quarterbacks when leading by at least eight points. As a result, I expect the Chiefs to keep passing and Mahomes to clear 36.5 pass attempts.
Where to bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 Pass Attempts | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes Over 277.5 Passing Yards
Since I expect Mahomes to attempt more than 36.5 passes, let’s round out the picks with a correlated prop. He’s passed for more than 277.5 yards four times this season, including three of the four times he attempted more than 36.5 passes. Mahomes has also bested the 227.5-passing yard threshold three times in five victories this season.
The 2018 MVP has been outstanding this year, averaging 308.4 passing yards per game. Moreover, Mahomes’ median outcome is 292 passing yards this season. The matchup is also a plus for Mahomes going over 277.5 passing yards.
Quarterbacks have had more than 277.5 passing yards four times this year against the Titans. Further, the median outcome for quarterbacks facing the Titans is 300 passing yards, much higher than the 254.7 passing yards per game Tennessee allows this season. So, let’s make it a Mahomes’ trifecta for player props.
Where to bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 277.5 Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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