The Chiefs should light up the Broncos in the first game of Week 6. Kansas City’s passing attack won’t meet much resistance against Denver’s leaky secondary, which is ideal for the following suggested Chiefs vs. Broncos player props.
Let’s dive in!
Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Props
Editor’s Note: The following Thursday Night Football player props are listed on FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook.
However, if you live in a state where these options aren’t available, you still could place Chiefs vs. Broncos player props at Underdog Fantasy.
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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Week 6
Here’s a trio of Chiefs vs. Broncos player props I like for Thursday’s primetime matchup:
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5-Yard Longest Completed Pass (-114)
Patrick Mahomes has completed passes over 36.5 yards in two of five games this year. So, it would seem leaning toward the under would be the better decision. However, Denver’s defense is pitiful.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Broncos have the lowest pressure rate (13.6%) and allow 263.0 passing yards per game at an NFL-high 8.7 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). The longest completions by week they’ve allowed were 21, 36, 68, 29, and 37. So, only two of Denver’s opponents have had completions for over 36.5 yards. However, the Dolphins had a 54-yard completion and a 68-yard completion against the Broncos in Week 3. Thus, I like Mahomes’s odds of torching them for at least one completion over 36.5 yards.
Where to bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5-Yard Longest Completed Pass | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
Justin Watson Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
If Mahomes completes a pass for over 36.5 yards, Justin Watson is an excellent bet to be on the receiving end. I sandbagged a stat in Mahomes’s write-up to feature in Watson’s. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Denver’s opponents have completed an eye-popping 11 of 15 deep passes (20-plus air yards) for 356 yards.
Watson is tailor-made to carve them up deep. According to PFF, Watson has a 23.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and nine targets, five receptions, and 153 receiving yards on deep passes this year.
The speedy veteran wideout is averaging 43.8 receiving yards per game, with a median of 51 in 2023. He’s also gone over 23.5 receiving yards four times this season. Thus, Bet Prep is projecting Watson for 26.48 receiving yards this week.
Where to bet: Justin Watson Over 23.5 Receiving Yards | -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Isiah Pacheco Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Isiah Pacheco is best known for his hard-charging running style. Still, he’s a meaningful contributor to Kansas City’s pass-happy attack.
The sophomore running back is averaging 19.8 receiving yards per game this year, with a median of 16, clearing 12.5 three times. Encouragingly, Pacheco has narrowly edged Jerick McKinnon in routes lately. Per PFF, Pacheco ran 42 routes since Week 3, and Jet ran 37.
Finally, the Broncos are inept when attempting to defend running backs in the passing game, allowing them 51.2 receiving yards per game this year, per The 33rd Team. As a result, Pacheco is projected for 13.61 receiving yards at Bet Prep.
Where to bet: Isiah Pacheco Over 12.5 Receiving Yards | -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
