Oh, joy. Russell Wilson and the Broncos are playing on primetime again. Denver’s been a raging tire fire this season. However, they should be well rested after playing on Thursday last week. Will it matter against the host Chargers?
The Chargers should have added motivation to play their best football after Kansas City lost Sunday. But will they handle their business against the struggling Broncos and extend their winning streak to three games? Check out our Chargers vs. Broncos predictions for this Week 6 Monday Night Football contest.
Chargers vs. Broncos Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | +4.5 (-110) | +178 | O 45.5 (-110) |
| @ Chargers | -4.5 (-110) | -215 | U 45.5 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 pm ET on Oct. 16
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Oct. 17
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Chargers vs. Broncos Trends
- The Chargers were 6.5-point favorites on Sunday (10/9) night, slowly slid to 4.5-point favorites on Wednesday, and have stuck there since at Caesars Sportsbook.
- The Chargers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall.
- Los Angeles is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games vs. an AFC opponent.
- The Chargers are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games against an AFC West opponent.
- Los Angeles is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
- The Broncos are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall.
- Denver is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games following a straight-up loss.
- The Broncos are 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games.
Herbert & Ekeler Are Heating Up
The Chargers have been humming lately. In the last two weeks, they’ve scored 64 points with 884 total yards of offense. Further, they’ve scored at least 24 points four times this year.
Justin Herbert has played well this year, averaging 295.6 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He’s also taken only five sacks.
Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler has been on fire. The speedy do-it-all back had 109 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in Week 4. Then, he had 199 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Week 5.
More @NFLFantasy points for @AustinEkeler! @Chargers take the lead. 🎸 #BoltUp
📺: #LACvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/psZXYKrNKH pic.twitter.com/89uPANc4PA— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2022
Herbert and Ekeler are the backbones of the offense, but the ancillary pieces can also contribute. So, according to Football Outsiders, the Chargers are ninth in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Sadly, Pro Football Focus (PFF) hasn’t been as impressed. Nonetheless, PFF ranks the Chargers 15th in total offense.
Los Angeles’s defense has been a more polarizing unit between the two advanced stats outlets. PFF ranks them 25th in total defense. However, they’re a rock-solid 13th in total defense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Russell Wilson: Cooking More Slop For Primetime?
The Wilson, Nathaniel Hackett, and Broncos troika have been a disaster. The Broncos are 27th in total offense DVOA. They’re ranked more favorable at 15th on PFF. However, Denver’s traditional stats are gross.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Broncos are 18th in yards per play (5.4). Moreover, they’re 31st in scoring offense (15.0 points per game). Their season-high points in a game were 23, and they’ve scored 16 or fewer in the other four games. The Broncos have also exceeded 400 yards of offense only once, despite the benefit of overtime in one game.
Further, it’s most alarming that they played their worst offensive game of the year last week, scoring only nine points in an overtime loss. It’s also hard to imagine things turning around while Wilson plays through a partially torn lat and with stud running back Javonte Williams on Injured Reserve.
Essentially, K.J. Hamler’s reaction to Wilson not seeing him for an easy game-winning touchdown last week perfectly sums up the state of Denver’s offense in 2022.
KJ Hamler was NOT happy after this game… pic.twitter.com/G1jzaa5Msj
— DenverAA (@NuggetsAAccess) October 7, 2022
Chargers vs. Broncos Predictions
Sometimes, it’s simple. When you can take the better quarterback and offense at home against an offense that’s averaging a pitiful 15.0 points per game, you have to do it.
Comparatively, the Chargers are averaging 24.4 points per game. Denver hasn’t even scored 24 points in a game this year. Yes, LA’s defense has brought the best out of a few of their opponents this season. Nevertheless, Denver’s blown a few cupcake matchups this year. So, they’re fully capable of bed-wetting against LA’s mediocre to below-average defense.
The Chargers are the better squad, with a sizable advantage at the most integral position. Further, the betting trends are another check in the pros column for laying 4.5 points with the Chargers. So, I’ll gladly do so.
Pick: Chargers -4.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook