A workhorse workload for one running back is ideal for their rushing over. Meanwhile, a pair of non-wideouts have excellent passing-game matchups, making their receiving overs enticing options. Overs are the theme of tonight’s props. Read below to find out which three overs stand out in our top Cardinals vs. Patriots player props for Monday Night Football Week 14.
Cardinals vs. Patriots Player Props: MNF Week 14
For a full list of Cardinals vs. Patriots player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
James Conner Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
James Conner is a throwback. In a time of running back committees, he’s bogarting his backfield’s work. The veteran running backs missed three games from Week 6 through Week 8. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he returned to a 71% snap share in Week 9. However, Conner has had 96%, 77%, and 97% snap shares in three subsequent games, and the 77% was dragged down by an early exit in a blowout.
According to numberFire, Conner handled 49 of 52 rush attempts by running backs in neutral game scripts in Arizona’s last three games. As a result, he’s rushed for 69, 42, and 120 yards in his previous three games.
Sadly, the matchup is challenging at first blush. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are first in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 8. However, New England has struggled with running backs on teams with mobile quarterbacks.
Justice Hill and J.K. Dobbins had 83 rushing yards in Week 3 for the Ravens, David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert had 124 rushing yards in Week 7 for the Bears, and James Cook and Devin Singletary had 115 rushing yards in Week 13 for the Bills. Thus, running backs attached to running quarterbacks have steamrolled the Patriots. So, I love Conner’s odds of rushing for more than 61.5 yards. Further, if you are willing to take a -113 line instead of the +100 line at DraftKings Sportsbook for over 61.5 rushing yards, FanDuel has his line at 59.5 rushing yards.
Where to bet: James Conner Over 61.5 Yards | +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jonnu Smith Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The Patriots invested significant capital in Jonnu Smith in free agency before the 2021 season. The athletically-gifted tight end finished his first year on the Patriots with 1.8 receptions and 18.4 receiving yards per game while playing second fiddle to fellow free-agent signing Hunter Henry.
Smith has been the clear-cut No. 2 tight end again this year, averaging only 2.0 receptions and 18.2 receiving yards per game. Yet, his low receiving yardage average is above his prop. Sadly, his median outcome this year is only 10 receiving yards. Still, Smith has had more than 12.5 receiving yards five times in 11 games.
So, he’s popped up a few times. Frankly, Smith’s over is an exciting bet because of the matchup. Tight ends have clowned the Cardinals this year. According to Football Outsiders, tight ends have averaged an NFL-high 68.4 receiving yards per game against Arizona. Finally, the Patriots could use Smith in two-tight-end personnel groupings more as a way to compensate for the absence of No. 1 wideout Jakobi Meyers. As a result, I love Smith’s over for 12.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Jonnu Smith Over 12.5 Receiving Yards | -113 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Receptions (-145)
Rhamondre Stevenson is another candidate for an uptick in looks in the absence of Meyers. But, of course, he’s already a target hog. In New England’s last five games, the second-year running back had a 23.7% Target Share. Stevenson turned his frequent targets into 25 receptions.
Since Mac Jones reprised his full-time starting quarterback role in Week 8, Stevenson has averaged 5.0 receptions per game, bested 4.5 receptions four times, and had a median outcome of 6.0 receptions. Additionally, New England’s offensive tendencies, Arizona’s opponents’ tendencies, and the matchup are ideal for Stevenson.
The Patriots have attempted 113 passes and 73 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their last five games. Conversely, teams have attempted 146 passes and 76 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts against the Cardinals in their last five games. Finally, running backs have averaged 5.6 receptions per game against the Cardinals this season, and Stevenson has no competition for pass-catching work in New England’s backfield. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he’s run 133 routes in the Patriots’ last five games, the second-most on the team. Therefore, Stevenson’s over for 4.5 receptions is a tasty bet.
Where to bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Receptions | -145 at DraftKings Sportsbook
