The Buccaneers and the Chiefs meet in a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl the Bucs won in their home stadium. Can the Chiefs exact some revenge in a rematch? The spread is non-existent in a pick ’em. However, casual NFL fans might be surprised by the game’s modest total. So, the game might not feature the fireworks one would expect in a contest pitting two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks against one another.
Having said that, where should bettors place their money on this game? We’ll walk you through our Buccaneers vs. Chiefs predictions and best bets for Sunday Night Football on October 2.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | pk (-110) | -110 | O 45.5 (-110) |
| @ Buccaneers | pk (-110) | -110 | U 45.5 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 pm ET on Sept. 30.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 2
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: NBC
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Trends
- The Buccaneers opened as 2.5-point underdogs at Caesars Sportsbook on 9/25, moved to 1-point favorites on Thursday, and sit gridlock in a pick ’em as of Friday night.
- The Chiefs are 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games following a loss against the spread.
- The Bucs are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games after an against-the-spread loss.
- The Bucs are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Tampa Bay is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Bucs are Balanced
The Bucs have navigated changing and injured offensive line personnel this season. They also dealt with injuries to their receiving corps, the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, and a one-game suspension last week for Mike Evans. As a result, they haven’t been the same pass-happy and uptempo offense in 2022.
Instead, they’ve been balanced, using the pass and run on offense and leaning on an outstanding defense. Tampa Bay has attempted 103 passes and 77 rushes this year. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed only 27 points this year, coughing up a season-high 14 points to the back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense last week. Football Outsiders ranks the Bucs first in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has graded Tampa bay as the second-best defense this year.
The offense will get Evans back in the mix as well as possible other reinforcements, namely Chris Godwin and offensive lineman Donovan Smith. So, the offense might be able to carry more of the burden this week if needed.
Can Patrick Mahomes Lift the Chiefs?
The Chiefs kicked the door down in the opener, erupting for 44 points in a Week 1 victory. However, they’ve scored just 44 points in two subsequent games combined. So, what initially looked like smooth sailing without Tyreek Hill in the offense to keep defenses honest deep has encountered a snag the last two weeks.
Nevertheless, Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy continue asking a lot of Patrick Mahomes. In neutral game scripts this year, Mahomes has attempted 77 passes, and non-quarterbacks have attempted only 42 passes. But, of course, it’s understandable to lean on Mahomes with their dreadful rushing attack. The Chiefs are 29th in rush DVOA and seventh in pass DVOA.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Predictions
The Bucs have many paths to victory. Tom Brady could cut loose more often this week with help on the way. However, Tampa Bay can also lean on Leonard Fournette and their top-shelf defense.
Conversely, the Chiefs have struggled mightily to run the ball effectively. So, Mahomes is a one-man show on offense. He also might be without lid-lifter Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The speedy wideout hasn’t had big numbers. Still, his ability to stress defenses deep is integral for opening up the intermediate and shorter part of the field for Kansas City’s other pass-catchers. He’s listed as questionable, and MVS could struggle if he plays at less than 100%.
Kansas City’s defense is stellar on the other side of the ball. They’re ninth in total defense DVOA. They’re also graded as PFF’s ninth-best defense. Still, their ranks at Football Outsiders and PFF are behind the Bucs. As a result, I expect the home team to earn the victory while the Chiefs continue to tinker and figure out their new-look offense on the fly. Fortunately, since it’s a pick ’em, the Bucs just need to win.
Pick: Buccaneers PICK (-110) | Caesars Sportsbook
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Player Props
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