The Braves have stormed back over the last couple of months and erased a double-digit deficit to be a contender in the NL East standings.
Every game against the Mets will be important. They need consistent wins if they want to take the division and try to get a bye for the Wild Card round.
Braves vs. Mets Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves (Anderson) | +1.5 (-170) | +130 | O 8.0 (-105) |
| @ Mets (Walker) | -1.5 (+143) | -155 | U 8.0 (-115) |
Ian Anderson’s 2022 Regression
The Braves will send up Ian Anderson tonight. After an impressive sophomore season with a 3.95 ERA and nine wins, he has regressed with a 4.99 ERA coming into today. He’s lost some zip and movement to his fastball, and you’ve seen the impact as he’s gone from a -13 run value with that pitch in 2021, to a +6 this season. The stuff he had last year isn’t there, as his fastball and curveball spin have dropped into the first percentile.
What’s helped him match his nine wins from last year is the run support he’s received. The Braves score an incredible 5.89 runs per game in his starts which is near the top of the league.
The Mets Up & Down Offense
Many thought the Mets losing Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom before the season would hurt them. However, the other starters in the rotation, including Walker, have stepped up. The offense has also come out hot as they started with the third-best OBP (.328), fifth-best average (.257), and wRC+ (113) going into June 1.
The Mets began to struggle soon after that date as their average dropped to 18th (.246), OBP 14th (.317), and wRC+ 11th (109) till July 17. But another jump propelled the Mets to the best average and wRC+ since July 18.
Taijun Walker’s Breakout Year
New York will have Taijuan Walker on the mound. After ten seasons in the league, he’s having a breakout season. Injuries have plagued him throughout his career, but he’s showing that when he’s healthy, he’s valuable.
He throws a majority of four-seam fastballs and splitters. He is also getting tremendous horizontal movement on his four-seamer with a 66% perfect break above average. The splitter has undoubtedly become his best pitch though. This elite pitch has a 28.3% whiff rate, 26.3% strikeout rate, and a -14 run value.
Walker doesn’t rack up the strikeouts like in previous years. His 7.0 strikeouts per game is a whole point below his career average. However, the power-hitting Atlanta lineup takes big swings, which result in the third-highest strikeout rate in the league (24.7%).
The Braves Offense Is Even Better
The Atlanta Braves lineup feels like it’s even better than last year. Bringing in Matt Olson to replace Freddie Freeman has been successful as his move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark will allow him to reach career-highs in home runs and RBI this season. Austin Riley is having another impressive season, and I could also see him put up career numbers.
Braves vs. Mets Prediction
A struggling Anderson will have the challenge of going against a Mets offense that’s been elite in recent weeks. That doesn’t mean you should count them out, as the Braves can give him enough support to stay in this game. This game could go either way, but expect both lineups to have an impact.
The Pick: Braves at Mets Over 8 total runs | -105 at Caesars Sportsbook
