A pair of highly successful pitchers take the mound in Atlanta tonight. Miles Mikolas will attempt to be the stopper for the Cardinals after they lost the first two games of the series.
However, Max Fried will make it tough for the visitors to reverse their fortunes. With a couple of pitchers in good form opposing one another, will it be a pitcher’s duel? Not necessarily. We’ll look at the betting info for the Braves vs Cardinals, offering a prediction and best bet.
Braves vs Cardinals Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals (Mikolas) | +1.5 (-135) | +143 | O 8 (-110) |
| @ Braves (Fried) | -1.5 (+115) | 170 | U 8 (-110) |
Mikolas Has Been Firing On All Cylinders
Mikolas vs Braves: Mikolas had just a 4.23 ERA with equally humdrum ERA estimators in 2021. This year, he’s turned it up a notch, resembling the excellent pitcher from 2018. According to FanGraphs, Mikolas has a 2.61 ERA while chewing up 100 innings in 16 starts. However, his 3.37 xERA, 3.86 xFIP, and 3.96 SIERA have been more rock-solid than elite.
In addition, Mikolas’ 19.8 K% is below the average mark (22.2%). Full disclosure, Mikolas has done a superb job of managing contact quality and avoiding hard hits. Still, there’s not a ton of margin for error, and the Braves can punish a pitch-to-contact approach.
Braves offense: The Braves are an adequate offense against righties, ranking tied for 14th with a 102 wRC+. However, not all mid-pack offenses are built the same. Strikeout artists can pick apart their 25.1 K%, but low-strikeout hurlers must contend with their .187 ISO, that’s tied for the second-highest mark in 2022.
In addition, the Braves have been in good form and rule the roost in their home digs. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has been tied for the 10th-best wRC+ (112). And at home, they’re fourth in wOBA (.332).
Fried Is A Full-Blown Ace
Fried vs Cardinals: There isn’t a way to pick apart Fried’s number that comes to a different conclusion than he’s an ace. In 161 starts spanning 101.1 innings, he’s had a 2.66 ERA, aligning nicely with his 2.81 xERA and 2.85 xFIP. Additionally, in his last five starts, he’s had a 2.51 ERA and 2.47 xFIP in 32.1 innings.
The lefty can also hang his hat on his ability to mow down lefties and righties. Since last year, Fried has held left-handed batters to a .274 wOBA and righties to a .266 wOBA. Finally, Fried has been unphased by his hitter-friendly home park, spinning a 2.94 ERA last year and a 2.92 ERA this year in Atlanta.
Cardinals Offense: The Cardinals have a challenging matchup tonight, as I mentioned above. Nonetheless, if any team will get the best of Fried, the Red Birds are one of the best bets. They’re tied for second in wRC+ (121) against southpaws this year.
They’re also a pinch above average on the road, tying for 13th in wOBA (.315) in away games. Finally, they’re tied with the Royals and Braves for 10th in wRC+ (112) over the last 14 days. Therefore, there’s potential they get the better of Fried, even though that’s not the outcome I expect.
Braves vs Cardinals Prediction
The Braves should be favored at home with the better pitcher on the bump, a slight bullpen advantage, and an offense that thrives at home. Unfortunately, the combination of the Red Birds’ lefty-killing offense and Mikolas’ pitching skills provide me pause for suggesting the Braves’ moneyline or run line. The juice is too much.
Instead, I’m putting my faith in Atlanta’s potent offense getting the better of Mikolas’ low strikeout rate. But, of course, the park factors at Truist Park influence my decision. According to ESPN, Atlanta’s ballpark has had the fifth-highest park factor for runs (1.12) this year. I swear, I won’t only pick overs and team totals in this column. However, that’s the pick again tonight.
The Pick: Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-110) | Caesars Sportsbook
