The Bills and New England Patriots will matchup on Sunday, Dec 31. Kickoff for the game is 1:00 ET and will be shown on CBS. Buffalo is favored by 13 points in this game, and the total is 40. Who do we think will come out on top? Keep reading for our top Bills vs. Patriots predictions.
Bills VS. Patriots Odds
- Spread: Bills -13
- Total 40
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Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Dec 31
- Time: 1:00 ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
- TV: CBS
Patriots Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Patriots have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-2-1 vs. the spread.
- New England has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 18 points per game while allowing 17. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Patriots have gone 3-6-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
Bills Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Bills have an over/under record of 0-5 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Through their last ten home games, Buffalo has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 6-4 while averaging 26 points per game.
- Buffalo has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
Do the Patriots Stand a Chance in Orchard Park?
Throughout this season, the Patriots have a record of 4-11, which positions them at 4th in the AFC-East. Their performance reflects a 3-8 record as underdogs and 1-3 when they are favored. This season, the Patriots boast an above .500 record versus the spread, currently standing at 4-10-1. Their average scoring margin for this season is -7.3.
The Patriots took on the Broncos in week 16, winning by a score of 26-23. In addition to winning straight-up, the Patriots covered the spread as 7-point underdogs. With a set over/under line of 36.5 points, the game concluded with a combined total of 49 points, surpassing the betting line.
Facing the Broncos, the Patriots rushed the ball 21 times, with Ezekiel Elliott leading the team with 27 yards. Bailey Zappe attempted 33 passes, accumulating 256 yards and a passer rating of 117.
So far, the Patriots defense has given up an average of 306.1 yards per game and 21.5 points per contest (16th). Coming into the game, they have allowed a completion percentage of 66.1% and have given up 19 passing touchdowns. Against the run, they are 2nd in the NFL.
Does Buffalo Have What it Takes at Home?
In the AFC-East standings, the Bills are in 2nd place with a record of 9-6. Within the AFC, Buffalo is 6th, heading into week 17. The Bills’ scoring margin thus far is currently at +8.5. This has contributed to an ATS record of 6-9.
In their previous game, the Bills defeated the Chargers with a final score of 24-22. The Bills secured the win, but they didn’t cover the spread against the Chargers while being favored by 12.5. The over/under line for the game was 44.5 points, and the teams managed to surpass it, recording a combined total of 46 points.
The Bills’ offense produced a total of 335 yards against the Chargers. On third downs, the Bills achieved a conversion rate of 50%. Notably, James Cook led the rushing attack with 70 yards, while Josh Allen passed for 237 yards.
In terms of turnovers, the Buffalo defense has 24 takeaways, which is 3rd in the NFL. Overall, they are giving up 18.4 points per game and 310.2 yards.
Bills vs. Patriots Player Prop
Against Buffalo, Bailey Zappe’s passing yards prop is 208.5. Currently, the payout for going over this threshold is -116.
Zappe is ranked 39th among quarterbacks in passing attempts as he heads into the game. To date, he has thrown for 975 yards while maintaining a completion rate of 63.5%. With Zappe up against a Bills defense that has been good at applying pressure on the quarterback, I’m leaning towards betting on the under for his prop of 208.5 passing yards.
- The Prop: Bailey Zappe Under 208.5 Passing Yards (-116)
Bills VS. Patriots Predictions
Since the lines were initially posted, Buffalo has seen movement from -12 point favorites to their current line of -13 (-110). New England, on the other hand, currently stands as a +13 (-110) point underdog on the road.
New England’s pass defense has some momentum after containing Denver’s passing attack in their last game. Even as 13-point underdogs on the road, I’m backing them to cover against Buffalo.
The Pick: Patriots +13 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook