The Bills were rolling before their Week 7 bye, piling up a 5-1 record, which included an impressive road victory against the Chiefs in Week 6. Meanwhile, the Packers have lost three consecutive games. Buffalo is understandably a double-digit home favorite. But what bet should gamblers make on this contest? We’ll analyze both teams and provide you with our Bills vs. Packers predictions for Sunday Night Football.
Bills vs. Packers Odds
The Bills are listed as 10.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is 47.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 30
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
- TV: NBC
Bills vs. Packers Trends
- The Bills opened as 10.5-point favorites last Sunday (10/23), moved to an 11-point favorite on Tuesday morning before dipping back to a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday afternoon.
- The Bills are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six home games.
- Buffalo is 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four home games against a team with a losing record.
- The Bills are 10-1-2 against the spread versus a team with a losing record.
- Buffalo is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games after amassing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- The Packers are 1-5 in their last six games following an against-the-spread loss.
- Green Bay is 1-5 in their last six road games.
- The Packers are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Packers are a Mess
There isn’t a kind way to frame Green Bay’s performance this year. First, they have a 3-4 record, and their wins are against teams with a combined 9-13 record. Second, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Packers have a negative-18 point differential.
The Packers are lousy on offense and defense. Green Bay is 24th in scoring offense (18.3 points per game) and tied for 14th in scoring defense (20.9). Yet, Football Outsiders ranks the Packers’ defense worse than their offense. Per Football Outsiders, the Packers are 10th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 25th in total defense DVOA. At Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Packers are ranked 14th in total offense and 12th in total defense.
Green Bay ruled out receiver Allen Lazard (shoulder) and cornerback Shemar Jean-Charles (ankle) for Sunday night’s game in Buffalo.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 28, 2022
The Bills Are Well-Rounded and Well-Rested
Buffalo’s only loss this year was to the Dolphins in Miami when the Bills were without many integral starters on defense. They also had 497 total yards of offense and allowed just 212. It was an unusual loss, suffice to say.
They’ve rebounded with three consecutive wins and have the highest point differential (95), a blistering 39 points better than the second-highest mark. Buffalo is lighting it up on offense and putting the clamps on the opposition.
The Bills are second in scoring offense (29.3 points per game) and first in scoring defense (13.5). They’re also second in total offense DVOA and ranked sixth in total offense at PFF. On defense, they’re first in total defense DVOA and tied for fourth in overall defense at PFF.
Thus, the Bills can trounce opponents. They also have multiple avenues to victory if one unit isn’t playing up to its usual standard of excellence.
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Bills vs. Packers Predictions
The Bills should win this week. It’s also been encouraging how they’ve performed after their bye during Sean McDermott’s tenure as the head coach. Since the Bills named McDermott their head coach in 2017, they’re 5-0 off the bye, winning 30-27, 24-21, 31-21, 27-17, and 26-11, working from 2017 through 2021.
Buffalo has also dominated at home. In two home games this year, the Bills have outscored the Titans and Steelers 79-10. Last year, including the playoffs, the Bills won their last four home games by 30, 17, 14, and 17 points. So, they’ve outscored their last six opponents in Orchard Park by 147 points.
Meanwhile, the Packers have lost two of three games on the road this year, losing by 16 in Week 1 in Minnesota and by two in Washington last week. They’ve also lost three games they’ve played against an opponent that currently has a winning record, losing by 16 to the Vikings, five to the Giants in London, and 17 points to the Jets in Green Bay in Week 6.
It might feel uncomfortable laying more than 10 points to back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers are mired in a funk, and the Bills are a runaway freight train. As a result, I’m delighted to lay 10.5 points on the favored Bills and expect them to boat race the Packers in primetime.
Pick: Bills -10.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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