Best Travis Kelce Prop Bets vs. Bills – Sunday, Jan. 21

Oct 12, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the ball against the Denver Broncos during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Image Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

For each week of the NFL season, we provide the best Travis Kelce prop bets. The Chiefs’ next game is Sunday, Jan. 21 against the Buffalo Bills.

Best Travis Kelce Player Props Bets vs. Bills

As the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to face the Buffalo Bills in a highly anticipated AFC Divisional Round matchup, all eyes are on star tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce’s performance could be pivotal in a game featuring two of the NFL’s most potent offenses. With the Bills’ defense potentially weakened by injuries, Kelce’s role as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to receiver could be even more critical, especially in high-pressure situations where his reliability and playoff experience are invaluable.

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Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receiving – Receptions (-140)

Travis Kelce’s receptions prop is set at 5.5, and there’s compelling evidence to suggest he’ll go over that number. Kelce has been a consistent target for Mahomes, averaging 6.2 receptions per game this season, with a 60% hit rate for going over the current line. Moreover, against the Bills, Kelce has historically performed well, maintaining a 100% hit rate with an average of 6 receptions per game. The Bills’ defense is currently dealing with numerous injuries, which could leave them vulnerable in the secondary and allow Kelce more opportunities to make catches. Additionally, Kelce’s importance in high-stakes games cannot be overstated; he’s a trusted target in the Chiefs’ offense and often sees an increased number of targets in playoff scenarios, further bolstering the likelihood that he’ll surpass the 5.5 receptions mark.

Travis Kelce Over 61.5 Receiving – Yards (-115)

While the receiving yards prop for Travis Kelce is a closer call, the over still presents a strong case. Kelce’s season average of 65.6 receiving yards per game is just above the line set at 61.5 yards, and he has a 100% hit rate against the Bills, with an impressive average of 83 yards per game. The Bills’ secondary is potentially weakened by injuries, which could lead to more gaps in coverage and big-play opportunities for Kelce. Furthermore, Kelce’s recent performance trend, with an average of 63.8 yards over the last ten games, suggests he’s still producing at a high level. Given the high stakes of the playoff atmosphere and Mahomes’ propensity to look Kelce’s way in crucial moments, it’s reasonable to expect Kelce to rack up enough yardage to push past the over on his receiving yards prop.

All Travis Kelce Player Prop Picks for Sunday, Jan 21

Player Name Prop Line Over Rate Over Odds Under Odds Last 10 Average Projection Our Pick
Travis Kelce Receptions 5.5 5/10 -140 +110 5.7 6.37 Over
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards 61.5 4/10 -115 -115 63.8 61.20 Under

Travis Kelce Stats for the 2023/24 NFL Season

  • Receiving Receptions Per Game
    • Season: 6.2
    • Visitor: 5.86
    • vs. Buffalo: 6.0
  • Receiving Yards Per Game
    • Season: 65.6
    • Visitor: 58.71
    • vs. Buffalo: 83.0

Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 21
  • Time: 06:30 PM
  • Location: Highmark Stadium – Buffalo, NY
  • TV: CBS