Why do we get jazzed about the Belmont Stakes every year, even when there isn’t a Triple Crown on the line? Because it’s the race where this happened: Secretariat broke horse racing, backed up, and clip-clopped all over the shattered pieces before riding off for a wild night of sugar cubes and fillies that put the ‘86 Mets to shame.
No, but really. There’s a reason this is one of the most incredible photos in all of sports:
There might not be any Secretariats in the field this year, but Props.com takes a look at the 154th running of the Belmont Stakes.
Belmont Stakes Odds & Post Position
| Post position | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We the People | Flavien Pratt | Rodolphe Brissett | 2-1 |
| 2 | Skippylongstocking | Manny Franco | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 20-1 |
| 3 | Nest | Jose Ortiz | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 4 | Rich Strike | Sonny Leon | Eric Reed | 7-2 |
| 5 | Creative Minister | Brian Hernandez Jr | Kenneth McPeek | 6-1 |
| 6 | Mo Donegal | Irad Ortiz | Todd Pletcher | 5-2 |
| 7 | Golden Glider | Dylan Davis | Mark Casse | 20-1 |
| 8 | Barber Road | Joel Rosario | John Ortiz | 10-1 |
Breaking Down The Track
Let’s start with the obvious. The Belmont Stakes is long. At a mile-and-a-half, it’s the longest of the three Triple Crown races and a grueling obstacle that thwarted 12 Triple Crown bids between Affirmed’s 1978 win and American Pharoah’s breakthrough in 2015.
The sweeping turns of Belmont Park are a unique challenge for jockeys unfamiliar with the contours of the track. The surface itself can be treacherous. The track’s nickname is “Big Sandy,” and it didn’t earn that moniker because it was like running on asphalt. Ever take more than six steps on a beach? You’re ready to die before you can re-zinc your nose.
But what might matter most this year is the lack of horses who want to run fast, early.
Pace Yourself
“The biggest thing seems to be the complete lack of pace other than We the People. The chatter is that’s to his advantage,” said Ed DeRosa, vice president of content and product development at Horse Racing Nation.
The horse in question, We the People is the 2-1 morning line favorite who ran in neither the Kentucky Derby nor the Preakness Stakes, yet he possesses a critical advantage: he likes to go early and be out front, and none of the others in the eight-horse field do. He can dictate the pace of the race and force others to run his race.
The mile-and-a-half of the Belmont sometimes confuses casual bettors. Surely horses can’t go the whole way in first through the marathon distance. But American Pharoah never trailed and neither did 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Da’Tara, the 2008 victor, says hello.
And if the forecast is correct about rain on Saturday, We the People, with a win in the mud on this track in the Peter Pan Stakes in May, will take even more action. Which will push his paltry 2-1 morning line price down into the muck.
“If it’s muddy, that’ll probably get even more attention because he went on the mud last out. To me, it’s an overreaction to the potential pace scenario and his last win,” DeRosa said. “I definitely would be looking to play against him if people have that kind of reaction.”
The Derby Winner Returns
When last we saw Rich Strike, he was going 80-1 Bombzilla in the Kentucky Derby and stunning Epicenter out of what looked like the sure kickoff of a Triple Crown bid. But trainer Eric Reed didn’t run him back in the Preakness, so now the Derby winner is back looking to pick up a second jewel.
Installed as the 7-2 third choice, the question around Rich Strike is: Can he do it again? But the more important question is: Are you getting enough of a price to find out?
And the answer is “no.”
“I happen to think the Derby winner is going to be the favorite, at least in the win pool,” DeRosa said. “My fair odds on (Rich Strike), I had him at 6-1. He’s certainly going to be an underlay. I’m not interested in playing him. The fact that other people will be betting him maybe as low as 3-1 creates an opportunity on others.”
The Belmont Stakes Contenders
When last we saw Mo Donegal, he broke poorly in the Derby, was hung out wide but was picking off horses for a fifth-place finish about seven lengths behind the winner. He’s tested in big races and has run twice at Belmont.
“I think he’s the most likely favorite,” DeRosa said. “If you look at the international books, Mo Donegal is the clear favorite. Fair odds on him might be 5-2 or 3-1, but I expect him to be the one I’ll be pulling for the most from a wagering standpoint.”
At Circa Sports, Mo Donegal is listed as the close +260 second choice in their fixed-odds wagering, behind We the People at +240. At 5-2 as the second choice on the morning line he’s not going to fill your coffers on a win, but if We the People and Rich Strike get bet down on Saturday, you may get a slightly better price than his current number.
Creative Minister is another intriguing option who ran a solid third in the Preakness and returns here at 6-1. Nest, who ran second in the Kentucky Oaks steps up to take on the boys
“Mo Donegal and Nest will be my strongest leans in the win column. And then Skippylongstocking would be that secondary opinion where if he runs well I certainly want to put myself in a position to do well. I’m going to be pretty narrow with those in the top two and then Skippy the longshot to hopefully spice things up.”
DeRosa’s Belmont Stakes Picks
- Mo Donegal at 5-2
- Nest at 8-1
- Skippylongstocking at 20-1
Belmont Stakes Props Picks
- $20 win bet on Mo Donegal at odds of 5-2 or better.
- $10 exacta, Mo Donegal with Creative Minister and Nest. $20 total.
- $5 trifecta, Mo Donegal with Creative Minister and Nest with Creative Minister, Nest and We the People. $20 total.
