If you thought the Broncos and Colts attempted to set offenses back decades last Thursday, the Bears and Commanders might ask them to hold their beer. But, bad joke aside, the offenses in this week’s Thursday Night Football contest have left much to be desired this year. Thus, our favorite Bears vs. Commanders player props lean into the under. Let’s take a look at which Thursday Night Football prop bets made the cut.
Bears vs. Commanders Player Props: TNF Week 6
For a full list of Bears vs. Commanders player props and odds, check out our dedicated matchup page.
Brian Robinson Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Brian Robinson made his season debut last week after getting shot before the season. The comeback story is impressive. Still, he was limited. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the rookie running back played just 29% of Washington’s offensive snaps and toted the rock nine times for 22 yards.
Unfortunately, even in a good matchup, he might find the sledding tough behind Washington’s offensive line. First, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks the Commanders tied for 16th in run blocking. However, second, Football Outsiders ranks them 32nd in Adjusted Line Yards (3.78).
So, Robinson is a part-time player and running behind a below-average run-blocking offensive line. That’s not a formula for success on the ground. Finally, the pace might also be lousy for Robinson. According to Football Outsiders, Washington is 29th in situation-neutral pace. As a result, I’ve bet the under for 45.5 rushing yards by Robinson and suggest others do the same.
Where to bet: Brian Robinson Under 45.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Darnell Mooney Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bears don’t like passing. In neutral game scripts this year, they’ve attempted only 63 passes compared to 85 rushes by non-quarterbacks and another 29 scampers by Justin Fields. Further, the offense is dreadful.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, they’ve averaged the 11th-fewest yards per play (5.2), attempted the fewest plays (266), and attempted only 88 passes, 35 fewer than the second-lowest total. So, Chicago’s ecosystem is horrendous for receiving production.
Therefore, Darnell Mooney has had less than 44.5 receiving yards three times this season. He’s also a poor matchup fit against the Commanders. First, he has a below-average matchup on PFF’s wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart.
Second, Mooney is a vertical wideout opposing a team stingy against deep passes. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Mooney has a 17.5-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) this year. In addition, Washington has held opposing quarterbacks to an ugly 41.2% completion percentage on 34 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 air yards in 2022. So, again, the matchup is awful for Mooney, and betting on his under for 44.5 receiving yards is enticing.
Where to bet: Darnell Mooney Under 44.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Justin Fields Under 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Fields has been in a groove on the ground. In the last three weeks, he’s rushed for 47, 52, and 47 yards. However, the second-year quarterback also rushed for 28 yards and 20 yards in the first two weeks of the season and has a tricky matchup this week.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Commanders have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (32) to quarterbacks this season. They’ve also held them to under 2.0 yards per carry. Moreover, they’ve faced some mobile signal callers. The Commanders have held Trevor Lawrence to four rushing yards on two attempts, Jalen Hurts to 20 on nine carries, and Ryan Tannehill to three on three rushes. So, they’ve demonstrated the ability to bottle up talented running quarterbacks.
And, again, the Bears haven’t run many plays or often succeeded on offense. So, if Chicago continues to stumble, it will be difficult for them to run enough plays and possess the ball enough for Fields to exceed his rushing prop. Sure, he has the speed to break a long run and surpass 41.5 rushing yards, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. So, let’s take another under and embrace the grossness of this contest.
Where to bet: Justin Fields Under 41.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook
More TNF Picks
NFL Same Game Parlay Picks – SGP Betting For Bears vs. Commanders (TNF Week 6)
Bears vs. Commanders Predictions & Best Bets: Thursday Night Football Picks (Week 6)